We have officially broken through the SP500 Wyckoff distribution and the 200SMA, and yesterday’s dead cat bounce or short covering is now transitioning into a full fledged bear market.
It doesn’t take a lot of common sense to know that this oil crisis is significantly worse than the 1970s and 2020s oil crisis combined. Just go to your local Shell / Esso / SPC station and check out the price for gas. I think the sg govt should at least lower the fuel surcharge tax to help out the skyrocketing prices. Higher oil prices = everything becomes expensive and business will be forced to cut costs.
War is now inevitable but this kind of asymmetrical warfare is extremely hard to win when a single drone can essentially take out an oil tanker traversing through the strait.
BTC, GLD and SLV show a liquidity crisis and a de-risking off mood is very much going to be coming for the next few months.
Japan is the most affected here. BOJ must intervene or the JPY is going to crash, and more carry trade unwinding is almost but certain.
By the way, old guys like me don’t believe in the causal wisdom that “it is better to stay invested than stay out of the market”. If capital preservation is your main goal, you need to move out of markets into cash when you see an avalanche coming. And there is one coming big time!
I hope I am wrong about the incoming recession, but the end of the day, it doesn’t matter if you are right or wrong. What matters is that you make money. I would rather be wrong and make money, than be right and lose money.
submitted by /u/Pet10003 to r/singaporefi
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