​Hey fellow DeepValue Hunters,
​I’m deep in on SES S.A. (SESG) at €5.75. This stock is an absurdly strong, asymmetric value play, driven by a strategic masterstroke you need to see.
​The Thesis: US Government-Funded Turnaround
​Massive Upside Lever: The FCC is planning to clear C-Band spectrum. The compensation for everything above 100 MHz goes 100% to SES (thanks to the Intelsat merger). A realistic payout could equal or exceed the entire current market cap (~€2.5 Billion).
​The Result: This cash funds the cleanup! It instantly drops SES’s high leverage to its Investment Grade target and sets the stage for a Special Dividend potentially over €1.00 per share.
​Risk Mitigation: The core business is a cash cow (50% margin). Downside is limited by FCF and the guaranteed base payment (~€700 Million)
​Smart Money is Buying: My naive Wyckoff analysis confirms this. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) is showing a Higher High (HH), meaning institutions are quietly accumulating huge positions before the price breaks out. JPMorgan’s 10.00 target validates the base case.
​Bottom line: We have a rare opportunity where a regulatory event (C-Band) acts as a near-guaranteed catalyst to clean the balance sheet and unlock massive value. SES is essentially being financed by the US government to consolidate its dominance in the satellite space.
​Key Date: The first vital indicator on the full payout (180 MHz vs. 100 MHz) is expected after the FCC’s comment period closes on January 05, 2026.
​What are your thoughts on this high-conviction C-Band trade?
submitted by /u/Jealous-Boat-6847 to r/ValueInvesting
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