Hi everyone! I hope you’re all doing well and ready for another trading week.
Let’s go straight into the EURUSD analysis.

EURUSD MONTHLY

1️⃣ Monthly Timeframe (MN)

If we draw a simple trendline from 2008, EURUSD has been in a clear macro downtrend for years. That bearish trend was broken recently with a clean breakout in May.

• The last major lower low (LL) on the monthly chart was around 0.9536 in September 2022.
• Using Volume Profile on MN:
  • The high-volume magenta area (most traded prices) is roughly 1.13 – 1.36.
  • Inside that, the most active prices are around 1.22 and 1.30.
  • The Point of Control (POC) / balance area sits near 1.09 – 1.18.

What catches my eye is that every time price tries to move higher, strong volume appears, showing heavy participation around the highs.

EURUSD MONTHLY VOLUME PROFILE

Monthly conclusion

• Long-term bearish trendline is broken.
• Price recently hit resistance around 1.1836 and September closed as a pin bar with no big volume – a move up but without strong effort.
• That raises the question: is this a true macro breakout, or just a large correction in a still-bearish structure?
• For now, the macro bearish structure is not fully broken, but momentum has clearly shifted.

2️⃣ Weekly & Daily – Wyckoff View + Pullback

EURUSD WEEKLY

TF 1W and D ANALISYS:

On the weekly chart, after the breakout we can clearly see a large accumulation range:

• Strong volume came in near the lows.
• Price retested the 1.01–1.02 zone and then launched higher with strong, effortless green candles.

From a Wyckoff perspective:

Given the breakout and the rally to ~1.19, I treat that zone as accumulation and assume we’re now in:

Phase E – Back-Up / Last Point of Support (LPS)
In simple words: a pullback back towards the breakout zone (1.10–1.20) with generally lower volume and some rejection candles.

Is there a pullback? Which phase?

Yes – the pullback is clearly underway:

• Clean bullish impulse from 1.02 → 1.19.
• At the top, price forms a short distribution range with lower highs.
• The daily POC / support at 1.1622 was broken and price accelerated down to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

This is classic behaviour for the first corrective leg in a larger uptrend.

I would call this a early–to-mid phase pullback:

• The first shallow target (23.6%) has been hit.
• There is no clear sign yet that the correction is finished (price has not reclaimed 1.1622).

As long as we stay below 1.1622, I assume the pullback can continue deeper.

EURUSD Daily

3️⃣ Fibonacci Roadmap – Where Could the Pullback Go?

Using the impulse 1.02 → 1.196 on D1, we have:

🔹 Zone A – 23.6% (1.148–1.152) – current area

• First place where aggressive buyers may step in.
• If we see absorption + quick recovery above 1.1622, the pullback could end here and stay shallow.

🔹 Zone B – 38.2% (1.125–1.13)

• Aligns with a previous consolidation area on the way up.
• If 1.15 breaks decisively, this zone becomes the next magnet.

🔹 Zone C – 50–61.8% (1.09–1.11)

• Overlaps with the monthly/weekly value area low near 1.10.
• This is my preferred “institutional buy zone”:
  • 50% Fibo ≈ 1.1078
  • 61.8% Fibo ≈ 1.0874
• If price drops here with panic volume and then shows strong rejection, it would fit a deep LPS/spring before a new macro leg higher.

4️⃣ H4 & H1 – Short-Term Structure

EURUSD H4

H4 – Trend and Key Levels

On H4, the internal structure is clearly bearish:

• Lower highs and lower lows from 1.18–1.19.
• The broken POC/level at ~1.1622 is now major resistance.
• Price has fallen to the 23.6% Fibo (~1.151):
  • A low was marked around 1.148–1.152.
  • We have seen a small bounce, but still below recent H4 POCs (1.155–1.157).

👉 H4 conclusion:
We have the first attempt at “stopping action” near 1.148–1.152, but the trend is still down.
No clear bullish Change of Character yet.

H4 zones

• Intraday resistance
  • 1.155–1.157 – cluster of daily POCs.
  • 1.162–1.165 – broken weekly POC / key daily level.
• Support
  • 1.148–1.151 – 23.6 Fibo + recent low.
  • Below that, next visible area: 1.142–1.145, then the 38.2% zone around 1.128.

H1 – Fine-Tuning the Timing

On H1 (zooming into the last leg down):

EURUSD H1

• Very sharp bearish leg from 1.162 → 1.149.
• At the lows, we see:
  • A first bounce from ~1.149.
  • A small sideways pause just around the 23.6% Fibo.
• However, the last significant highs are still falling – this still looks more like a pause in a downtrend than a real bottom.

For the pullback to be considered finished from a Wyckoff/timing perspective, I would like to see:

1. A strong break above 1.155–1.157 on H1.
2. Then a mild pullback back into that zone with lighter volume, forming a potential LPS and giving a cleaner long trigger.

Until that happens, the safest assumption is: the correction is still in progress.

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

5️⃣ Institutional Buying Zones (Summary)

Putting all timeframes together, these are the zones I’m watching:

• 🟢 Zone A – 1.148–1.152
  • 23.6 Fibo + cluster of H4/H1 POCs.
  • Suitable for aggressive / short-term longs if we see clear absorption & reclaim of 1.155–1.162.
• 🟢 Zone B – 1.125–1.13
  • 38.2 Fibo + previous consolidation.
  • Interesting for swing longs if price reaches it with exhaustion.
• 🟢 Zone C – 1.09–1.11
  • 50–61.8 Fibo + monthly/weekly support.
  • Classic long-term accumulation area if the pullback becomes deep.

As long as price stays below 1.1622, I treat the market as being in an active pullback, not in a fresh bullish leg yet.

6️⃣ What to Expect This Week – Trade Ideas (Not Financial Advice)

Base scenario for this week

• The main story is still “pullback inside a larger uptrend”.
• Short-term bias: corrective bearish while below 1.155–1.162.
• Volatility is likely to stay centered around the 1.15 area unless we see a strong breakout.

🔻 Short-term selling idea (counter-trend to the macro)

• While price remains below 1.155–1.162, any pullback towards 1.155–1.165 can attract shorts looking to ride continuation of the correction toward:
  • 1.148–1.152, then
  • 1.142–1.145 or even 1.125–1.13 if the week turns risk-off.

🔼 Medium-term buying idea (with the macro trend)

• For swing longs, I prefer to:
  • Wait for price to react clearly in one of the buy zones (A, B, or C), and
  • See an H4/H1 structure shift (higher highs + higher lows) plus a reclaim of 1.155–1.162.
• If that happens, potential upside targets for the coming weeks would be:
  • Back to 1.18–1.19, and later
  • Possibly towards the 1.22 area if the macro markup continues.

Good Luck!

KrulerCapitalMarkets