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Here’s the daily IREN chart in plain English. After the big September/October run, the stock stopped going up and started moving sideways between ~58 and 69, classic distribution in Wyckoff terms (a range where strong hands feed stock to late buyers). Within that range you can map the usual sequence: a Buying Climax (BC) around 74–75, the Automatic Reaction (AR) down to ~58–60 (first hard flush after the climax), and repeated Secondary Tests (ST)/Up-thrusts (UT) where price tries and fails to hold pushes back toward 70+. The late-October pop over ~70 that immediately failed is textbook UTAD (Up-Thrust After Distribution), and last week’s decisive break below 58–59 is a SOW, Sign of Weakness. Since then, rallies have stalled under falling moving averages; those rebound attempts are likely LPSY, Last Points of Supply, i.e., “sell-the-rip” zones rather than fresh bases. If you take the height of the range (74–58 ≈ 16) and project it down, you get a measured move around 42 as a rough markdown objective (not a guarantee, just the standard Wyckoff count). Candlesticks support that story. Near the highs we saw long upper shadows and a bearish engulfing / evening-star-type sequence, signals that buyers were losing control. The actual breakdown printed wide red real bodies on heavier volume, which is how supply asserts itself. Importantly, we haven’t seen a clean bullish reversal yet (no convincing hammer, bullish engulfing, or piercing pattern at a major level). Momentum and volume line up, too. MACD (trend-momentum oscillator using 12/26 EMAs) has rolled over with a negative histogram, and RSI (relative strength index) sits around 45, below the neutral 50 line, momentum favors sellers. Several red volume spikes reinforce the idea that distribution turned into active selling. Key levels: 58–60 is the pivotal battleground, prior floor now acting as a ceiling. A strong close back above 60 would neutralize the breakdown; >66 would make a full range reclaim plausible; only >74 really buries the distribution thesis. On the downside, Fibonacci retraces of the July–Oct leg put first support near ~51 (50% retrace) and stronger support around 45–46 (61.8%), which also aligns with that Wyckoff measured-move zone (42–46). Bottom line: base case is Wyckoff Phase D -> markdown. Rallies into 58–60 likely behave as LPSY unless demand overwhelms and reclaims the level. Bull path = look for a real reversal print (hammer/engulfing with rising volume) near 51 or 45–46, then a retest and close >60 to argue a failed breakdown (“spring”) instead of markdown. Bear path = lower highs under 60 and a drift toward 46–42. NFA. submitted by /u/Brilliant_Builder697 to r/irenstocks |