Gold sitting at $4,514 after another clean rejection off the 4,560 high. 1H structure still bearish — BOS down at ~4,520 holding, fresh supply left behind overhead. Not chasing the breakdown. Waiting for the pullback into supply.

Where we are

• Current price: $4,514
• 1H trend: bearish, BOS at ~4,520
• Fresh 1H supply: 4,545–4,551 (untested, OTE-aligned)
• Invalidation high: 4,560
• Liquidity below (all untouched): 4,495 → 4,470 → 4,440
• Mitigated H1 demand: 4,470–4,490 (already tapped)

The plan — A grade (8/10)

• Direction: SHORT
• Entry zone: 4,545–4,551 (fresh 1H bearish OB, OTE 0.618–0.786)
• Stop loss: 4,560 (above supply, tight ~10pt)
• TP1: 4,495 (RR ~3.3)
• TP2: 4,470 (RR ~7, major swing low)
• TP3: 4,440 (RR ~10+)
• Risk: 1%, partial at TP1, trail SL to BE, runner for TP2/TP3

Confluence stack

• ✅ 1H BOS down at ~4,520, structure holding bearish
• ✅ Fresh untested 1H Bearish OB at 4,545–4,551
• ✅ OTE retracement (0.618–0.786) aligns with the OB
• ✅ Tight SL = exceptional R:R (3.3R to first target)
• ✅ Multiple downside liquidity pools as magnets
• ❌ Missing: Wyckoff distribution pattern → caps at 8/10

Entry trigger (sniper)

• Price pulls into 4,545–4,551
• 15m bearish ChoCH inside the zone
• 15m BOS down on the pullback structure
• Bearish rejection candle on 1H or 15m engulfing
• No trigger = no trade

Why not shorting 4,514 right now

Mid-air. SL would have to sit at 4,560 = 46pt stop on a leg already 80% played. Bad R:R vs. waiting for the retrace. Either price comes to me into supply, or I miss it — both fine.

Invalidations

• 1H close above 4,560 with momentum → supply failed, scrap it
• Bullish ChoCH above 4,560 with strong follow-through → flip neutral
• Major catalyst (Fed, geopolitical) blowing the zone

Management

• TP1 (4,495) → partial, trail SL to BE
• Strong bullish reaction off 4,470 with ChoCH → close runner
• Clean break of 4,470 → ride TP3 4,440, then re-evaluate

⚠️ Heads up: NY Killzone is volatile — price may overshoot the zone slightly before reversing. Don’t get faked out by a wick.

Anyone else stalking the 4,545s for the re-short or playing the 4,470 sweep for a long scalp?

Not financial advice, just my plan.