Wyckoff’s Guide to Smart Money Manipulation

I get it: “nObOdY kNoWs sHiT aBoUt FuCk.” But, personally, I’d rather take an educated guess when investing my hard earned money than take a piss in the wind. I know some of you gamblers think that technical analysis is just an esoteric trifle–the tarot card reading of the finance world–but for the sake of all fucks, market psychology is a real, historically-proven phenomenon. And, it’s driven by institutional “smart” money. The emotions of professional market participants are responsible for the changes in the market. Degen dollars rarely cause spikes in trading volume and aggressive price action (unless GME is involved).

(Before you read further, mind you, I’m just some motherfucker on Reddit with no professional financial or mathematical background. These are the opinions that are informing my moves within the market, and I just thought I’d shared them. There’s still going to be that one asshole in the comments; screw you in advance.)

Wyckoff

I present to you the Wyckoff Market Cycle. The cycle is based on the idea that markets move through a series of distinct phases, each characterized by a unique set of market conditions and investor emotions (hope, greed, fear, etc.). As you can see, there are four stages of the market.

The Accumulation Phase (November to January)

Accumulation

Institutional investors were quietly building positions; note the low volume and volatility. Your favorite billionaires probably didn’t tweet about it, but they were seated at the crypto buffet. While you were trying to time the market bottom and held out for another 30% dip to go “all in,” the whales were in a quiet feeding frenzy.

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The Markup Phase (January to ???)

Markup

Do you see these gigantic fucking steps and spikes in volume? Do you remember conspiring with your three friends from high school to buy BTC at the same time? No? That’s because these massive jumps in volume are larger orders from institutions. As the market started to move higher, institutional investors became more bullish and increased their buying, which was characterized by increasing volatility and volume. It started with baby steps around the 4th, and by the 11th some suits got really greedy.

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Distribution [Speculative: Not Pictured] (???)
This is where FOMO kicks in. If you’re not in the DCA cult, you’ll sure have wished you’d joined by now. In this phase, institutional investors start to take profits, which is characterized by high volatility and high volume. WHAT FOLLOWS IS MY OWN NOVICE SPECULATION (NFA): We’ve been hanging out at this support level for a while now, which leads me to believe that we’re in the beginning/middle of a distribution phase or it’s fast approaching. I think prices could become more volatile once we approach the 24k resistance level (Last seen in August, 2022). Then we might expect the whales to dump their bags. But, we could easily take more steps upward. I think high volatility will be the best indication of a crashing market, either way.

Markdown [Yet to Happen: Not Pictured] (???)
This is when everyone advises you to HODL or buy the dip. But the dip is expired and rancid. In the markdown phase, institutional investors continue to sell, and the market continues to decline. Most will inevitably lose faith in crypto, sell at a loss, and question the ramifications of taking charge of their own financial freedom.
What’s the Takeaway?
The Wyckoff Market Cycle can help you understand market trends and how to respond to your impulses as a gambler (i.e. ignore that gut feeling and do what’s smart). Again, I can’t emphasize this enough, I’m just some motherfucker on Reddit. Please DYOR. TD Ameritrade’s ThinkorSwim platform offers a great course on technical analysis, and I highly recommend it (that’s the shill you were waiting for). I think that understanding these market cycles can be really helpful with timing the market accurately and understanding what to do with your money. I just wanted to introduce you to the model. Despite all of the name calling, I sincerely hope that you succeed. The odds are against many of us.
TLDR: Research the Wyckoff Market Cycle and see how it applies to your holdings in this market.