Why your opinion doesn’t matter (unless it aligns with the “Big Boys”)

I saw a great quote recently: “We all got opinions, but do they align with the big boys and who’s in charge of what it is we have an opinion on?”

As retail traders, we spend all day arguing about fundamentals, news, and earnings. But at the end of the day, we don’t move the price—Smart Money does. If you aren’t trading on the side of the institutions, you’re just exit liquidity for the “Big Boys.”

I just finished a deep-dive case study on Alibaba ($BABA) using the Wyckoff Method to see what the people “in charge” are actually doing. Here is what the tape is telling us:

1. The “Cause” is Massive: BABA has been in an accumulation range for nearly 4 years. In Wyckoff terms, the “Cause” (accumulation) is directly proportional to the “Effect” (the markup). A base this large usually leads to a massive trend.

2. Supply is Exhausted: During the recent tests, we saw volume drop from 500M to 50M. That is a clear sign that the “Strong Hands” have absorbed the floating supply. There simply aren’t many sellers left.

3. The Targets: Based on the P&F (Point and Figure) counts from this base, the technical targets are sitting at $238 – $264, with a long-term potential of $400+.

Bottom line: Stop trading your “opinion” on the news and start following the Effort vs. Result in the price action. The big boys are leaving footprints—you just have to know how to read them.

I’ve mapped out the Phases (A through E) in my latest analysis. https://youtu.be/4DJMOfNwfig?si=X5Bg1AFhr-cZrmgX

love to hear from other Wyckoffians—are you seeing the same accumulation footprints, or are you still sitting on the sidelines?