$TSLA’s Wyckoff Distribution and Macroeconomic Headwinds

Body: Alright, fellow traders, let’s dive deep into why I’m increasingly bearish on $TSLA. My previous posts outlined a Wyckoff distribution pattern, and it’s playing out as expected. We’re seeing lower highs, weakening support, and fading momentum.

Fundamentally, $TSLA is a car company facing deteriorating sales. European sales are down significantly, especially in Germany, and US sales are also weakening. Competition is rising, particularly from Chinese automakers, and Elon Musk’s polarizing behavior isn’t helping.

Demand is softening, evident in the 0% APR financing and attractive lease deals. Losing access to Canada’s iZEV rebate program is another blow. And now, Trump’s 25% tariff on imported vehicles and auto parts, which Musk acknowledges impacts $TSLA’s supply chain, is a game-changer. This tariff forces institutions to accelerate their exit strategy, potentially extending the LPSY phase of the Wyckoff distribution.

JPMorgan already cut $TSLA’s price target to $120 before the tariff announcement. The fundamentals were weakening, and now the headwinds are even stronger.

Zooming out, consumer confidence is falling sharply, and the Durable Goods report shows massive deceleration. This is the early phase of a slowdown. Retail is being played, with many investors not remembering the harsh lessons of 2008.

Be careful buying the dips. This Wyckoff distribution in $TSLA, and possibly the broader market, has room to continue.