TSLA 1H — patient short into the 418–425 / 428–435 supply stack, B (7/10), eyes on 390 → 375

Not a call, just sharing the plan so I don’t FOMO long the bounce at 408 like the rest of the timeline.

1H structure is clean bearish: ChoCH below ~430, then a series of LL/LH selling all the way from 455 down to 393. Price is now bouncing into a 1H pullback and I’m watching the supply stack overhead, not chasing this drop.

What I’m watching (short):

• Entry zone 1 (primary): $418 – $425 (fresh 1H demand-flip-to-supply + bearish FVG, sits in OTE of the leg down)
• Entry zone 2 (premium / backup): $428 – $435 (Premium OTE Supply, only if 425 fails to hold)
• SL: $430.50 above zone 1 / $436 above zone 2
• TP1: $390 (round number + recent swing low / first demand reaction)
• TP2: $375 (deeper 1H demand shelf, prior structure)
• (Optional TP3 runner if 375 breaks clean: $370 → 365)

Confluence stack (B / 7-of-10): Order Block, Fair Value Gap, Liquidity Sweep on the bounce highs, ChoCH below 430, BOS down, OTE retracement landing right in zone 1, premium supply layered above. Missing: no clear Wyckoff Spring / Accumulation / Distribution phase — that’s why it’s a B and not an A.

Entry confirmation (sniper, not market order):

• Wait for price to actually tag 418–425
• 5m / 15m bearish ChoCH inside the zone
• LTF BOS down + rejection candle off the OB / FVG
• Then short the retest, not the first touch

What kills this idea:

• 1H close above $430.50 → zone 1 invalidated, only zone 2 left
• 1H close above $436 → full invalidation, flat / flip neutral
• Price rips straight through 425 with momentum and no LTF shift → no entry, I miss it, fine
• Bullish ChoCH back above 435 with volume → walk away, the bear leg is done

Why I’m not shorting 408 right now: Mid-range between 393 demand and 425 supply is no-man’s land. Stops would have to sit at 425+ to mean anything structurally, and price is more likely to pull into the supply before continuation. Algos love hunting that exact pullback before dumping the next leg. Patience here pays.

Management: ~1% account risk. Partial at TP1 (390), trail SL to BE, runner for TP2 (375). If 390 holds with a clean bullish reaction → close the runner, don’t be greedy. If 393 breaks first without a pullback, I just miss it — there will be more setups.

Anyone else stalking the 418–425 pullback short, or playing the bounce long into 425 first? Curious how you’re framing the SSL grab at 393.

Not financial advice, just my plan.