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Since my last post (here) there have been some very important developments in $PARA’s price action and merger. I originally wrote my DD post when $PARA was at about $10.60, and didn’t finish and post it until $PARA had broken out to about $11.30. Between the time I started writing my thesis on Paramount’s bull case (and opened my first position at $10.51) and now, the price has rallied about 12%. I believe that the price action during this time has confirmed my bull case and an important part of my original DD that I intentionally left out to wait for confirmation. Keep in mind that this bullish trend has taken place in a highly volatile selloff of the market. If SPY can turn bullish, I don’t see why $PARA wouldn’t FLY. Shoot, it may even flyt with the market still being a turd. Summary of the technicals: The daily golden cross just happened as of 3/7/25. From a technical perspective, this is one of the most bullish signs you can find on a chart. Now for the important pattern that I have been monitoring extremely closely: we’ve just passed the Last Point of Supply in what I think is one of the cleanest Wyckoff Accumulation patterns I’ve ever seen Daily RSI has just reentered the bull zone, trendline is heavily bullish. Daily ADX looks fantastic. This bullish trend is still just getting started. Non-technicals: We passed earnings and it was a non-event. Paramount+ memberships rose 3.5 million in the quarter, and revenue was just shy of $8B. Still absurdly undervalued, in part due to the impending merger and presumed dilution from it. But wait, because there is important merger news…. If you recall from my previous post, the collapse of the merger would lead to the unwinding of a HUGE bearish position and arbitrage play that has been set up. About $43M in bearish puts, and 11% short interest (71.5M shares). Between the two, 45% of the free float is exposed to a short position. Well, it was just announced that a judge may be putting a halt on the merger: Judge may consider blocking Paramount-Skydance deal | Reuters The above article also indicates that the merger has 2 weeks before closure (3/20 at the earliest), and that there is up to 6 months of potential delays depending on FCC approval and court proceedings (further sources indicate that the FCC review will almost certainly take until the summer). My belief is that this 3/20 date will come and go without closure. If litigation continues (it will) and the maximum delay of 6 months plays out, then that’s a long time to hold a bleeding short position…. Lets also consider the following scenario: if the judge determines that the offer from Skydance was, in fact, an unfair offer for shareholders due to the immediate dilution expected upon closure and the premium paid to Shari Redstone and Skydance, this would likely cause Paramount to pursue and accept the PRP offer (details below), which has NO risk of dilution and strengthens the balance sheet of $PARA significantly. It is a fundamentally better offer, and if it goes through, then the stock will become completely unbound from the assumed downside risk and can be free to experience true price discovery. Cue the RAPID unwinding of short positions. PRP offer: Project Rise Partners Issues Open Letter to Paramount Shareholders PRP is actively involved in litigation: Project Rise Partners Submits Friend of the Court Brief Oh, what’s this… Judge opens door to possible bidding war for Paramount as it scrambles to close $8B Skydance merger a whistleblower? Is there any basis to the claims of a breach of fiduciary responsibility and corruption as part of this deal? Well the courts are indicating that there may be: Paramount Ordered to Release Skydance Merger Records to Investor and NYC pension funds sue to delay Paramount-Skydance deal pending court review of alleged fiduciary breach | Pensions & Investments We’ve seen short positions get blown up in these situations before—when retail exposes the imbalance and institutions have to scramble to close their positions. PRP’s deal could be the catalyst that triggers the unwinding of short positions and explosive price action, and momentum behind the PRP deal is building. Even the faintest hint of it being a possibility, and the stock has risen 5.5% this week despite the S&P continuing to sell off. And the Trump lawsuit is close to being settled or tossed out entirely (surprise, surprise… it was utter nonsense to begin with): Paramount Moves to Throw Out Trump’s ’60 Minutes’ Suit: ‘An Affront to the First Amendment’ – this was never something to take seriously, but a few people brought it up on my previous post. The wheels are turning, and I believe that this is one of those very few trades that can be life changing if it unfolds how I believe it may. Retail needs to rally behind the stock, spread the truth about the PRP offer and corrupt SD offer, and pressure the courts to demand fairness for $PARA shareholders. So, my ask of you is this: share this DD and help the truth get out. If it does and pressure mounts, then PARA is primed to do something very special. Quick disclaimer* – I know WSB takes the whole short squeeze thing very sarcastically these days. While that is a generally reasonable perspective, this is a deep value play that has a heavily imbalanced short position that will need to be unwound if the presumed dilution is no longer a factor. I did not buy this stock because of the short position, and nor should you. It’s merely an exciting thing to ponder the possibility of.* *edit: not sure why my first two pictures are being auto-deleted. Will fix ASAP. submitted by /u/NinjaSlowloris to r/wallstreetbets |