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Hello Fellow Apes, It’s been a while since I last posted — I haven’t forgotten about you all. I’ve just been experimenting with a few ideas I had, and while they may not seem directly related to healthcare, they actually tie in through a broader lens: the healthcare sector is considered a defensive play, especially in times of economic uncertainty. Here’s the theory I’ve been testing: I believe smart money is quietly rotating into healthcare and other traditionally safer sectors in preparation for a potential recession. We don’t have full confirmation or all the data just yet, but I’ve been following my instincts — and so far, the signs are interesting. What triggered this line of thinking were the recent earnings reports from Walmart and Target. Both were rough. Target even announced they’d stop providing forward guidance because of growing economic uncertainty — that’s a red flag. Over on the layoffs subreddit, activity has exploded. People are reporting layoffs with staggering numbers, across a wide range of industries. Then there’s Dollar General, whose earnings were so bad they outright said that low-income customers can’t even afford basic necessities anymore. Just think about how wild that statement is — when a dollar store says their core customers are tapped out, we should all be paying attention. At the same time, I noticed a short-lived surge in healthcare stocks — seemingly out of nowhere, and then it cooled off just as quickly. Meanwhile, gold is being used as a hedge against the 10-year Treasury yield, which suggests rising anxiety about long-term economic conditions. Then there’s Tesla, which, interestingly enough, has started following the Wyckoff distribution pattern — and it’s right at the LPSY (Last Point of Supply) phase. That caught my attention big time. I also made two posts related to all this that absolutely blew up — massive numbers of views, shares, and comments. That kind of engagement pushed me to dig even deeper. I think we’re seeing early signs of something much bigger brewing beneath the surface. Part 1 https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jheaxd/tesla_short_thesis_and_the_us_market_house_of/ Part 2 https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jijwnb/tesla_short_thesis_and_the_us_market_house_of/ By the way, if you are interested, it’s both a very long read, but I went over some pretty neat idea. The funny thing about this is my post that tried to teach about Wyckoff got removed from the stocks sub reddit. Hello Fellow Apes, This is a follow-up to my previous two posts about the Tesla short thesis and the state of the economy—though, in all honesty, the focus is more on Tesla. People are deeply passionate (and emotionally invested) bag holders of the stock, so naturally, the conversation got heated. Today, I want to clarify a few things about two major topics: stock theses and the Wyckoff Method. Based on the comments I received, it’s clear that many readers have limited experience with investing and technical analysis. That’s okay—this post is meant to break things down clearly. And if I’ve misunderstood or misstated anything, feel free to correct me. We’re all here to learn. First, let’s address the misunderstanding around stock theses. A lot of people seemed to take my original post as a political attack rather than what it was: a financial argument based on technical analysis. So, let’s define what a stock thesis really is. A stock thesis isn’t just a collection of data points or a casual opinion—it’s a structured, evidence-based argument about why someone believes a stock will go up, down, or stay the same. A strong thesis usually includes an explanation of what the company does, the core investment idea (why the stock might be mispriced or misunderstood), possible catalysts, valuation perspectives, and risks. That might sound basic, but based on the responses, it’s clear that many didn’t approach my post this way. When reading a stock thesis—any thesis—you should approach it critically and constructively. It’s a starting point for discussion, not a conclusion to blindly accept or reject. Ask yourself: What are the assumptions behind this thesis? What data or logic supports it? Is it grounded in research or just buzzwords and hopium? What needs to happen for the thesis to be proven right? What would break the case? A good thesis acknowledges risks; a great one identifies the specific risks that would invalidate the thesis altogether. Also, just because something doesn’t align with your personal bias doesn’t mean it’s wrong. Skepticism is healthy—it sharpens analysis and leads to better insights. Ultimately, a stock thesis is not a crystal ball. It’s a map that reveals how someone is thinking, the terrain they expect ahead, and how they plan to navigate it. Whether or not you agree with a thesis, there’s value in understanding the logic behind it. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about Wyckoff. In my Tesla short thesis, I mentioned that the stock might be entering the LPSY (Last Point of Supply) phase. That clearly flew over a lot of people’s heads. When Tesla popped 11–12% shortly after, people cheered like my argument had already failed—completely misunderstanding how Wyckoff Distribution works and why it matters. So, let’s step back for a bit of history. Richard Demille Wyckoff was a pioneer of technical analysis, active in the early 20th century. He’s considered one of the five “titans” of TA, along with Dow, Gann, Elliott, and Merrill. Wyckoff started in the industry at age 15 and went on to run his own firm. He also founded The Magazine of Wall Street, which had over 200,000 subscribers at its peak. Wyckoff was a keen student of market behavior. He studied and interviewed legendary traders like JP Morgan and Jesse Livermore, eventually codifying their best practices into what we now call the Wyckoff Method—a framework built on trading principles, money management, and discipline. https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-method/ The Wyckoff Method is a trading and investing framework that helps us understand how large institutions—“composite operators”—accumulate or distribute shares without retail investors noticing. It focuses on three key ideas. First, the market is manipulated by smart money. Big players can’t just dump or load up on shares without moving the price against themselves, so they buy or sell slowly within a range. Second, price moves in phases: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. Third, price and volume behavior offer clues about where we are in the cycle and what’s coming next. To simplify, here’s how the four phases work: During accumulation, institutions are quietly buying while price moves sideways and retail gets bored. You’ll see higher lows, low volume, and fake breakdowns. In the markup phase, the price breaks out above resistance and starts running—this is when institutions stop buying. During distribution, those same institutions are slowly selling while retail is euphoric. Price again moves sideways, but this time you’ll see lower highs and fake breakouts. Finally, in the markdown phase, the price breaks down below support, volume increases, and retail panic-sells while institutions are already gone. These patterns repeat. And while this is a simplified overview, it’s enough to explain why we use the Wyckoff Method. We use it because we want to understand what smart money is doing—not what CNBC or Reddit says. It helps us identify high-probability entries and exits, avoid emotional trading, dodge false breakouts, and improve our timing and risk management. You don’t need to chase price—you wait for confirmation. “…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” –Wyckoff Someone asked me for a recommendation on how to learn Wyckoff. Honestly, any book will do. But more important than the book is practice. Use TradingView, study the charts, and apply the theory. No book will teach you how to confirm what you’re seeing in real time. Only experience will. Now, back to Tesla. One key component of my short thesis is that I believe Tesla is currently in the LPSY phase of Wyckoff Distribution. The Last Point of Supply is the final rally or fake-out before the markdown phase begins. It’s usually a lower high, on lower volume, and it fails to reclaim previous support—which has now turned into resistance. The LPSY is a trap for late bulls, and it’s typically followed by a sharp decline in price with increasing volume, confirming that supply has taken control. For Tesla, I believe ~$479 was the UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution). After that, we saw a pullback. Now we’re watching for a rally to a lower high (let’s call it point “X”). If Tesla rallies again but fails to break past X—and does so on weak volume—that could be our LPSY. If price then breaks down below a key Fibonacci level, we’re likely in the markdown phase. That was the thesis. And yes, I’m spelling it out clearly because I don’t have any crayons to draw a chart and post it here. Thanks for reading. If you made it this far, I appreciate your time. I welcome constructive feedback, questions, and even respectful disagreements. Just remember: the market doesn’t care about your feelings, politics, or team loyalty. It only responds to supply, demand, and execution. Now, for those of you who asked what I would personally do in the event of a recession—I’m not going to list every possible strategy out there, but I’m happy to share what I’ve actually done with my own portfolio. First off, I’m holding onto Nvidia, which I bought at a lower price. It’s currently the leader in a booming sector (AI, data centers, etc.), and even if the market takes a hit, I’m prepared to hold it for at least five years. If the price drops during a recession, I’m comfortable riding it out because I believe in its long-term fundamentals. To hedge against broader market risks, I also bought physical gold bars in November 2024. Gold acts as a hedge not only against stock market volatility, but also against the bond market. If you look at the chart for the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield, you’ll notice that many investors have recently turned to gold as a safe haven—especially when bond yields are rising or showing signs of instability. I’ve also consistently invested in healthcare stocks as a defensive play. This isn’t something I just started doing—it’s part of a long-term diversification strategy. Healthcare tends to perform more steadily during economic downturns because people still need medical care regardless of the economy. If you’re looking into healthcare stocks for recession preparation, here’s what I’d recommend focusing on:
The best way to keep track of these fundamentals is to create a simple Excel sheet. Pick a few companies you’re interested in, and start tracking their profits per patient. This helps you spot consistency, trends, and red flags more easily than relying on a single snapshot. Anyway, I hope this help. I’m genuinely confused — I had a post removed from a stock-focused subreddit for “trolling, insults, or harassment”… and all I did was explain how to read stock patterns using the Wyckoff method. I specifically mentioned that Tesla appears to be entering the LPSY (Last Point of Supply) phase. Since when is educating people on technical analysis considered trolling? It makes no sense. So, I’m reposting it here. Why? Because the first rule of the internet is: if you don’t want people to do something, don’t tell them not to — it only makes them more curious. Anyway, back to the bigger picture. I’m starting to think we may be heading into a recession. I’m not 100% certain yet, but the signals are adding up. I’m still waiting for more confirmation from economic data — though I’m well aware that government-released numbers can be distorted. I haven’t forgotten the Bush-era housing bubble or how Alan Greenspan’s Fed played a role leading up to the 2008 collapse. That financial crisis hit my community hard. My family and friends lost homes, jobs, businesses — and some lost their lives. I’m not going to blindly trust official narratives again. That said, we don’t need to rely solely on government data to see what’s coming. Earnings reports are often a more honest reflection of the economy’s health — and lately, they’ve been flashing warning signs. Target, Walmart, and Dollar General all had rough earnings. Dollar General’s statement was especially alarming: they essentially said that even low-income customers don’t have money for basic necessities anymore. That’s not normal. So now, I’m closely watching earnings every day and every week for further confirmation. More companies are missing expectations than beating them — and that’s a red flag. I’ve been using the WallStreetBets weekly earnings post as a tracker, and so far, the trend isn’t promising. Below is a screenshot from this morning’s pre-market action after Tuesday’s earnings — it paints a concerning picture. On the flip side, when we look at Clover Health (CLOV), it actually appears to be going through a Wyckoff accumulation phase — which I find absolutely hilarious given the broader context. Think about it: Tesla, one of the Magnificent 7 and a market darling, is showing all the signs of a distribution cycle, while CLOV — a penny stock that most people have written off — is potentially in accumulation. And all of this is happening as we teeter on the edge of a possible recession. At first glance, this might seem completely illogical. Why would institutional money start building a position in a small-cap healthcare company while offloading a mega-cap tech stock during economic uncertainty? By the way, I’m not saying people are moving money from Tesla to Clov, I’m talking about the market at larger–the composite man. But if you zoom in and actually look at the data — the 10-Qs, the 10-Ks, the technical analysis, and the current state of the business — it starts to make a lot more sense. CLOV checks several boxes that smart money typically looks for in turbulent times:
That’s a rare combo, especially for a company trading under fair value.. It may not make sense from a purely surface-level or emotional standpoint, but fundamentally and technically, it fits the profile of an undervalued gem — exactly the kind of stock institutions accumulate quietly before the broader market catches on. As for Tesla, I won’t get into it here since I’ve already written three long posts breaking down the Wyckoff distribution pattern it’s currently following — you can check those if you’re interested. All that said, this situation still feels surreal to me. It’s like the market is flipping upside down. I definitely need more data and confirmation before calling anything definitive, but so far… something very interesting is brewing. By the way — this is not financial advice. Honestly, I probably sound like a total lunatic right now based on what I’m saying. I mean, here I am telling you that Tesla — one of the most iconic stocks of the past decade — might be heading down, while CLOV, a penny stock everyone ignores, might actually be heading up. Oh, and I also think the market as a whole might crash. Yeah… I get how that sounds. But I’m not just pulling this out of thin air — I’m basing it on the evidence I’ve seen so far. Of course, things can change. I’m just following the patterns, the filings, and the numbers. Still, I’m fully aware how “out there” this all sounds. Let me put it this way: I’m the same guy who bet against SPY back in November. And yes, I made a little money — but also, I bet against SPY. Who does that? I also buy physical gold bars — and not from some shady dealer either. No, I buy mine from Costco. So yeah, I’m that kind of weird. Just giving you full transparency here. The “team” I’m part of — if you can call it that — is really just a bunch of data nerds who trust numbers more than we trust traditional investing strategies. We might be wrong. But we’re not guessing — we’re analyzing what’s in front of us. So take all of this with a grain of salt. I’m just sharing what I’m seeing. If I’m wrong, I’ll own it. If I’m right… well, I told you so. So far, I’ve been right a whole a lot. haha submitted by /u/Rainyfriedtofu to r/Healthcare_Anon |