I’m making this post because I genuinely believe a lot of retail investors are about to lose a significant portion of their wealth.
Roughly two weeks ago, I posted my short thesis on Tesla. Predictably, I got a wave of backlash—mostly from the usual Tesla bros telling others to “stay poor” while defending the stock with blind optimism. But now that some time has passed, the technicals and fundamentals are becoming harder to ignore. Tesla is clearly in Wyckoff distribution territory. Last week’s high was $291, and since then, the pattern has continued to follow the textbook signs of smart money exiting.
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jheaxd/tesla_short_thesis_and_the_us_market_house_of/
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jijwnb/tesla_short_thesis_and_the_us_market_house_of/
At the same time, we’re seeing a massive retail influx—$67 billion poured into U.S. stocks recently—while institutional investors are quietly heading for the exits. That dynamic alone should raise red flags. Tesla perfectly illustrates this: retail is still buying the hype while the data says otherwise.
Globally, Tesla is seeing declining sales and shrinking EV market share. Institutional holders are dumping their positions, yet mainstream media continues to push the narrative that “everything is fine” and a big comeback is just around the corner. That’s simply not true.
The reality is that Tesla’s forward P/E ratio and perceived moats are crumbling. The market is slowly waking up to the fact that the hype isn’t sustainable. Tesla bulls are trying to hold the stock up, but the fundamentals and macro forces are turning this into MyPillow 2.0.
We are just one earnings report or one round of global retaliation tariffs away from Tesla plummeting into the low $200s or even high $100s. China would be thrilled to see Tesla decline while BYD continues surging in global EV sales.
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jjmb9k/retail_traders_plough_67bn_into_us_stocks_while/
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpo69r/tesla_reports_336000_vehicle_deliveries_in_first/
What’s ironic is that even now, we’re still seeing articles predicting a “major comeback” for Tesla. But comeback to where? $140? Let’s be honest—we’re not even in the markdown phase yet, and when that phase begins, the bags retail investors are holding will only get heavier.
To those saying “people have failed to short Tesla before,” you’re right. But that was back when Tesla was simply overvalued on forward earnings—a story investors could still get behind. Additionally, it had the support of the world as a feel good car company that was trying to make a difference in climate change. Now, it’s different. The brand is turning toxic. Elon Musk, once the golden child of innovation, is now alienating much of the public and damaging the brand’s appeal. Don’t @ me, I know he didn’t invent anything, but he did popularized EV and mainstreamed it.
Meanwhile, EV sales as a whole are growing, but Tesla’s are falling—by double digits. That gap tells you everything.
Many retail investors are clinging to Tesla out of a sunk cost fallacy, hoping it will rebound. But hope isn’t a strategy. And in this case, it’s a dangerous one that could wipe out a lot of portfolios. I’m sure the Tesla bros will love this post. s/ but you can’t ignore the fact. There has been zero good news and the stock keep dropping. Zoom out.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-tsla-poised-big-comeback-125049639.html
https://insideevs.com/news/754163/us-february-ev-sales-record-tesla-falls/
And of course, we can’t forget that Tesla still has the blessing of none other than the Titan of Wealth Destruction herself—Cathie “Motherfreaking” Wood. Yes, the same Cathie Wood who’s still confidently projecting a $2,600 price target for Tesla, despite all signs pointing to the opposite direction. At this point, it’s almost comedic.
I’ll be revisiting this topic in a few weeks—after the institutional investors and hedge funds have quietly exited their positions and left retail investors holding the bags. Let’s see where the stock price lands once the dust settles. Spoiler: it’s probably not going to be anywhere near $2,600.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/03/30/cathie-wood-thinks-tesla-will-hit-2600-a-share-her/
submitted by /u/Rainyfriedtofu to r/Healthcare_Anon
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