Hello Fellow Apes,
First off, I just want to let you all know that I won’t be writing about $CLOV for a little while. I’ve seen your messages and I appreciate you reaching out. That said, I encourage you to revisit the posts Moocao and I have already written—most of the answers you’re looking for are already there. If anything significant changes, I’ll definitely post an update. But for now, the thesis still holds strong.
Even though we like to keep things light here and write like we’re straight outta WSB, please know that my team and I spend a lot of time analyzing data and theorycrafting. Everything we share is meant to inform and educate—whether it’s about the stock market, healthcare, or $CLOV itself. We genuinely want to help this community grow smarter.
Sometimes our calls seem ridiculous at first—shorting Tesla, CVS, SPY, and going long on a healthcare penny stock? Yeah, it sounded crazy. But hindsight shows we weren’t too far off. We made some real gains.
Now, what I’m about to share might go against what CNBC talking heads or social media influencers are saying. That’s fine. You can judge for yourself. But before we dive in, I’m going to link some of my previous posts—not just for the “I told you so,” but also to rub it in for those who told me to “stay poor” or said, “remind me in 6 months.”
Well… it’s not been six months but…
The market is speaking now, bitch.
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jheaxd/tesla_short_thesis_and_the_us_market_house_of/
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jijwnb/tesla_short_thesis_and_the_us_market_house_of/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Healthcare_Anon/comments/1jjkfxj/tesla_us_economy_healthcare_and_clov/
Tariffs aside, I believe we’re heading straight into a recession—and not just any recession, but one that’s accompanied by stagflation.
Here’s why: there’s an entire generation of investors who are wildly overconfident in their ability to trade, invest, and evaluate companies. Many of them gained their “experience” during the COVID era, when the Fed flooded the economy with liquidity and the Biden administration rolled out aggressive stimulus policies. They caught a once-in-a-lifetime bull run—and mistook luck for skill.
Now, they think they understand what a recession is. Worse, they believe the next downturn will be just like 2020: short, sharp, and followed by massive gains. They genuinely expect to buy the dip and become overnight millionaires again. But this time is different. Fundamentals matter again.
While seasoned investors and institutions are pulling out of the market, retail traders are throwing money at falling stocks. Just last Thursday, they poured $4.7 billion into the market. In total, they’ve spent around $67 billion in recent weeks—blindly “buying the dip” while the big players quietly exit.
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jjmb9k/retail_traders_plough_67bn_into_us_stocks_while/
Let’s put that in perspective: Warren Buffett is sitting on $300 billion in cash.
If the greatest value investor of our time is hoarding cash, you should be asking why—not rushing in with margin accounts and hopium.
And that’s the kicker: these buyers don’t have money. The average age of these retail traders is about 32, and they’re not sitting on piles of cash. So how are they injecting tens of billions into the market? Most likely:
- Margin trading
- Leveraging student loan or credit card debt
- Pulling savings from stimulus-era gains
They’re gambling, not investing. Hoping for another COVID-style miracle. But they don’t realize we’re entering a market phase where gravity matters again. Fundamentals, earnings, and macro data are all flashing red. And when reality hits? A lot of them are going to be wiped out—unable to pay back margin calls, stuck with worthless positions, and no bailout in sight.
We’re watching the death of the meme stock era in real time.
Let’s look at the data:
- The yield curve is inverted across the board—2, 10, and 30-year Treasuries are all signaling serious trouble ahead.
- The VIX is at 45, which is extreme fear territory.
- Major global economies are hitting us with counter-tariffs in response to U.S. trade moves.
- The banking sector is bleeding, with giants like JPMorgan not only taking hits but also openly warning of a recession.
- GDP forecasts are collapsing, with projections sitting between -2.8% and -3.8%.
This isn’t a natural correction. It’s a man-made event. And unlike 2020, there’s no coordinated lifeline coming. If the market doesn’t recover quickly—and all signs point to a slow, painful downturn—then this new generation of overleveraged traders is going to get obliterated.
This is the setup for a Subprime 2.0-style crash.
Except this time, it’s not housing loans—it’s retail speculation, margin debt, and blind confidence fueled by meme culture.
What are the institutions doing right now? If you want to understand institutional behavior, you have to analyze it company by company using the Wyckoff method. That’s how you see the real flow of money—who’s accumulating, who’s distributing, and when. I’ve already broken down the Wyckoff phases for $TSLA and $CLOV, and the patterns are all there if you’re paying attention.
But if you’re looking for the bigger picture—the macro behavior of institutions—you don’t have to dig too deep. Just turn on CNBC. Not for the news. The headlines are fluff. But listen to the talking heads. Watch what they’re saying… then compare it to what the data is actually showing.
They’re out here telling retail investors to “stay calm” when they should be raising red flags.
They’re saying, “Buy value stocks,” while institutions are offloading those same positions behind the scenes.
They’re hyping up garbage like $RKT (Rocket Mortgage) with the logic that rate cuts will fuel a wave of homebuying and refinancing.
And my response to that?
“With what fucking money?”**
Let’s be real here:
- A rate cut isn’t going to reverse the damage of a tariff war that’s slapping consumers with 20% to 98% in new costs.
- The average person’s cost of living is exploding—up 50% or more when you factor in food, housing, energy, and imported goods.
- Meanwhile, companies are announcing massive layoffs, especially in sectors sensitive to trade and inflation.
And somehow, in the middle of all this chaos, they’re telling you to buy junk bonds.
Let that sink in.
This isn’t financial advice—it’s a setup.
Institutions are dumping their bags, and retail investors are gobbling them up like Hungry Hungry Hippos. It’s a play straight out of the old Wall Street handbook: generate bullish sentiment in the media to prop up exit liquidity.
Retail is going to get crushed.
We’re not heading toward a MOASS (Mother of All Short Squeezes). We’re looking at a reverse MOASS—where the squeeze is on retail portfolios instead of short positions. If this plays out the way it looks like it’s going to, we’re about to see a new generation of investors bagholding through a 2008-style recession—except this time, there’s no housing bubble to blame. Just overconfidence, margin debt, and media manipulation.
Worst part? Most of these people will be stuck in red positions for 3–5 years, maybe more, just hoping to break even. Meanwhile, companies will keep dropping one brutal earnings report after another, confirming what we already know: we’re entering a prolonged downturn.
So here’s my advice:
- Stop buying the narrative.
- Start playing defense.
- Hedge against the downside.
- Build cash positions.
- Watch the Wyckoff phases—not the headlines.
We’re not just entering a recession. We’re stepping into a system reset. And if you’re not prepared, you’re going to get run over. Every time I read the headline of retails spending billions to buy the dips, I just know the crash will be that much bigger.
https://www.barrons.com/advisor/articles/investors-margin-trading-c44c6083?utm_source=chatgpt.com
As of January 2025, debit balances in investors’ margin accounts reached a record $937 billion, up 33% from $701 billion in January 2024.
submitted by /u/Rainyfriedtofu to r/Healthcare_Anon
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