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Hello Fellow Ape, As we are approaching the period where we cannot specifically talk about the stock, I want to write a quick DD to kind of guide you on how to figure out what price of a stock should be given some relatively information that you can acquire publicly with google. However, before we start, I want to give a quick shoutout to the Clover brigades that got blocked from posting and commenting on this reddit and for sending me those pay-attention-to-me message. I find those things hilarious, and I would like to share with you the following meme With that out of the way, let’s talk about stock price. I’m seeing a lot of numbers being thrown around for what people think Clov’s stock price should be at. As a side note, I’m using Clove because I did the math for it before I invested in it so I know what I should be looking at in terms of earning. Nevertheless, I’m going to attempt to show you one method of figuring it out. Nevertheless, I would like to say that I will not be doing the math for you because this isn’t going to make you a better investor. The first thing we’re going to talk about is Multiple. In finance, a “multiple” in the context of stocks refers to a valuation metric that compares a company’s stock price to a financial performance measure. These multiples are commonly used to evaluate whether a stock is priced appropriately relative to its earnings, sales, cash flow, or book value. There are a many type of metrics, but we’re going to name a few. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: This multiple compares the current price of a company’s stock to its earnings per share (EPS). A high P/E ratio might–it’s always a might–suggest that the stock is overvalued or investors are expecting high growth rates in earnings. You can compare similar company P/E or you can use the company’s historical P/E to figure out what multiple the company should be at. This is equivalent to comparing Costco to Sam Club or Costco in 2022 vs 2024, which is more like a pre-post test. P/E Ratio= Market Price per Share/Earnings per Share (EPS)
Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: This ratio compares the market value of a company’s stock to its book value per share. It provides insight into how much investors are paying for the net assets of the company. The last time we used this, we were telling you what Clov’s bankruptcy value was at, and it was how we figured out that the brigades were actively shorting the stock beyond its bankruptcy’s value, and then Andrew said “Fuck off,” but we’re not going to talk about this here. P/B Ratio= Market Price per Share/Book Value per Share
Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: This ratio compares the company’s stock price to its revenue per share. This is particularly useful for valuing companies that are not profitable yet but have significant sales. P/S Ratio= Market Price per Share/Sales per Share
Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA): This compares the total value of a company, including debt and excluding cash, to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). It is useful for assessing companies with different capital structures. EV/EBITDA=Enterprise Value (EV)/EBITDA
By using the above multiples, we can estimate a stock’s fair price by comparing key financial metric with those of similar companies or with the company’s own historical value. The hard part is figuring out the key financial metrics. The easy part is actually the math.
P/E = Current Market Price per Share / Earning Per Share (EPS) For Clov next earning, you would take the share price at the time and divide it by the EPS. This will tell you what the multiple at that time would be like.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Healthcare_Anon/comments/1e1ui7o/clover_health_ta_dd_memes/ For the next part, if Clov multiple should be at least what ALHC is at then it is simply the P/E x EPS = price per share that the stock should be at. Please remember to adjust for factors not reflected in the multiples when evaluating stocks, such as growth prospects, market conditions, and specific company risks. For Clover Health, adjustments might include star ratings, payment models, contract bids, and member recruitment. Regarding speculations about Clover Health’s stock price reaching $25, let’s look at the numbers. If Clover Health’s next quarterly report shows $25 million in Earnings per Share (ESP) and more than $50 million in quarterly revenue, the fair value of the stock would be approximately $5. Credit to Moocao for these calculations. Now, if we assume that all metrics scale proportionally, for Clover’s stock to hit $25, its ESP would need to be $125 million and its revenue would need to exceed $250 million. Currently, in Q2 of 2024, with about 82,000 Medicare Advantage members each bringing approximately $4,000 in profit, and outside of open enrollment season, expecting Clover to suddenly generate $125 million in ESP and $250 million in revenue is unrealistic. Therefore, I advise waiting for each company’s earnings report, conducting your own analysis and research, and then deciding for yourself the true value of the stock and whether it’s being overhyped or undervalued. This advice also applies to those who are overly pessimistic about the market. https://www.reddit.com/r/CLOV/comments/1e2oena/there_is_some_optimism_in_the_air_but_lets_be/ I’m sure this guy might have had some success shorting other SPAC, but he is very wrong about Clov. I want to highlight him because this is the kind of misleading information that I was talking about in my previous post where I talked about how fraudster use social media to manipulate the stock price. As a side note, it’s somewhat ironic that this WallStreetBets user has made some poor investment calls. Personally, I would typically do the opposite of what he recommends on WSB. It’s hard to understand why anyone would choose to bet against companies like NVIDIA, Netflix, Tesla, meta, amazon, and Apple? https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/160khnr/first_you_pamp_it_then_you_dump_it/ In the same spirit, I also don’t want to leave my fraudster readers in my writing. I got you Fam. Have you ever heard of a person named Richard D. Wyckoff? He is famous for developing a technical analysis approach which are commonly used for understanding and predicting market behavior based on analysis of price action and volume. One of Wyckoff’s key principles is the composite man. Wyckoff proposed that one should look at the market as being controlled by a single entity he called the “Composite Man.” This entity is a composite of all the large operators in the market. By understanding the motives and actions of the Composite Man, traders can make more informed decisions. Now, I would like to ask you this question. Do you think that you are the composite man or are you just a tool of the composite man? If the former is true, then you would have complete control over a ticker, and you are making big bucks. If the latter is true, then you are losing a shit ton of money and about to lose a lot more because you’re just a tool for the composite man. In other words, you are being wackoff by the composite man. hahaha Ok this is my last post for the time being because UNH earning is next week. Weee… Thank you everyone for reading my posts. submitted by /u/Rainyfriedtofu to r/Healthcare_Anon |