Recently, I have made a few posts regarding the Meme Stocks and their likelihood for price improvement within the foreseeable future. Hopefully, everyone is appreciating the data so far.
I am making this post strictly about ticker symbol FUBO do to a suggestion by u/deabag…the data actually looks pretty solid; I think that this data is some of the most compelling that I have seen so far… Thanks u/deabag!!!
The purpose of this post is to specifically provide data on ticker symbol, FUBO. The data that this post will focus on most heavily is that of GEX and skew-adjusted GEX data. (For those of you unfamiliar with this information, or any other data that I make reference to, I will do my best to explain as we go).
– Chart Data
Before we get too deep into dense topic, I want to mention FUBO’s current position, according to the [daily and 2-hour chart](https://imgur.com/a/9z2RkMq).
FUBO has been in a full capitulation since November, 2021; that is, until so many of the other “Meme stocks” had a quick run-up in August. When this happened, FUBO immediately moved out of its markdown phase and reached its selling climax near $2.35(ish) and rocketed up toward $8.19!!!
Now, according to the [Wyckoff approach](https://imgur.com/a/hCg8Pzh), the next dip is the secondary test (this is roughly where we were at a few days ago) and the area within the trading range this test occurs gives us some insight about what we can look forward to as we move forward.
In the last few days, it has been kicking ass on its way back up to move back up into the top of the trading range for a potential “Jump Across the Creek” (more movement upward). Impressively, FUBO is above its biggest volume shelf and is nearly at the top of its next volume shelf, suggesting a continuation? Further, as you can see on the 2-hour chart, the Bollinger bands are continuing to compress as the stock moves upward, indicating that it will likely experience an upcoming breakout.
– What is Naive GEX/Skew-adjusted GEX?
Naive GEX stands for “Naive Gamma Exposure” and is a measurement of the market makers hedging and un-hedging. “Naive GEX” calculations assume that investors are primarily selling calls and buying puts (Market Markers buy the calls and sell the puts, then hedge their positive delta by shorting shares).The accuracy of Naive GEX on a given security depends on the validity of the base GEX assumptions, specifically whether investors are selling calls and buying puts.
Typically (in less manipulated or controlled stocks), it is safe to assume that market makers buy calls and write puts; however, for the “meme” stocks, this is likely less true. If you are interested in learning more, I am attaching another link describing this information [here]([https://www.financetldr.com/posts/research-predict-the-market-with-the-dark-index-and-gamma].
The first article also describes the “Dark Pool Index.” I argue that this is a good thing for everyone to read about considering it describes how, and for what purpose, market makers use dark pools during the hedging process.
– So, how do we get around this problem?
We use the “Skew-adjusted GEX” which adjusts the data to fit and describe the data more effectively.
A stock’s Call Skew influences the “Skew-adjusted GEX,” which changes to reflect estimated MM exposure. A positive Call Skew is common in stocks which have outsized speculative call buying. I have discussed this with respect to the meme stocks in a recent post, but suffice it to say that FUBO’s [call skew is quite healthy](https://imgur.com/a/OG0oM4W) indicating that the activity remains bullish. Although “healthy,” the [current call skew](https://imgur.com/a/YydeNvs) is down about 4.4%, compared to its average call skew.
* Positive Skew Adjusted GEX: Daily movement subdued as Market Makers re-hedge by buying as stock price falls, and adding to their short as stock price rises.* Negative Skew Adjusted GEX: Daily movement accentuated as Market Makers re-hedge by buying as stock price rises, and adding to their short as stock price falls.
It is important that you understand that Naive GEX values are (generally) positive when skew-adjusted GEX values are negative…otherwise, the upcoming data will get very confusing.
Note – For the upcoming information, I want to reference you toward two legends describing how to interpret much of the information that I will be discussing [here](https://imgur.com/a/6j0Z5C2). The third document is one that I have not included in my previous posts because I am skeptical about the accuracy, but suffice it to say that the “CWOP” values are an approximation for the stock price according to the relative contract expiration date…BE VERY CAREFUL IF YOU DECIDE TO USE THAT INFORMATION!!!!
– Back to the Action!
As is evident in FUBO’s recent [IV chart](https://imgur.com/a/ZEdcE81), the has been, and continues to remains high, relative to its price thereby lending credibility to the note in the legend that I referenced you toward a moment ago. For those of you that did not look at the legend, I am referencing the tendency for a stock that experiences an increase in IV but does not increase in price is often a prelude to to an underlying price movement, meaning that it is likely that this stock will experience a push upwards in the near future (I have discussed more about this in my previous posts regarding spring development and Wyckoff analysis).
As for FUBO’s Naive GEX, it is [CRAZY HIGH!!!](https://imgur.com/a/vSRQtd4). Remember my earlier point that you need to remember regarding positive GEX values and negative skew-adjusted values? I hope so, bc [this](https://imgur.com/a/2lQYBig) screenshot represents the total gamma for FUBO across all expirations (for the next 94 days anyway…) meaning that more positive values (i.e. bars on top) than negative values (bars on bottom) is indicative of an underlying potential gamma-squeeze. This is in contrast to the next few screenshots which show the [skew-adjusted gamma](https://imgur.com/a/3280qH5) for all expirations (for the next 94 days), for this next week (Sept 23rd), and for Oct 21st. The fact that we have so much negative net skew-adjusted gamma is a good thing, especially because so many of these strike prices are immediately next to one another, which could serve to facilitate a gamma squeeze, and I think that this is exactly what is happening with FUBO right now!!!
However, I should note that not all of the positions for which we have higher gamma and more negative skew-adjusted gamma are immediately adjacent to one another. This is important because if we lose momentum in between these strike prices, it can certainly make for a difficult, and very frustrating experience. Further, if we get pushed down to the area of $3.07(ish), the skew-adjusted value will flip from negative to positive, meaning that the market makers will move from buying stock as the price moves up to a position in which they buy on the way down and short on the way up, which would make our efforts more difficult.
Currently, FUBO’s [open interest](https://imgur.com/a/bZo9IXp) indicates that if we make it above $5, our current call activity far exceeds that of puts which will serve to facilitate wild price improvement…we just have to make it there.
tl;dr: GEX and Skew-adjusted GEX are measurements of market maker hedging and un-hedging. After reviewing this information for FUBO, it seems clear that market makers are in a very bad position and FUBO may likely experience an upcoming gamma squeeze.
Let me know if anyone has any questions; I am always happy to help. 🙂
submitted by /u/kwsparks to r/wallstreetbets
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