EURUSD 4H — not chasing the dump, waiting for the pullback to short

Pair: EURUSD TF: 4H Bias: SHORT Price: 1.15358

Look, I know everyone is screaming “short EU” after that sell-off candle on the 5th. I get it. But shorting here at 1.1535 mid-range with a stop above 1.1660 is just donating money. R:R is upside down.

The clean play is the pullback. Here’s how I’m sizing it up:

Setup

• Entry zone: 1.1620 – 1.1638 (fresh 4H bearish OB + 4H FVG + 61.8-78.6 OTE)
• SL: 1.1660 (above the OB swing high)
• TP1: 1.1500 (recent SSL)
• TP2: 1.1450
• TP3: 1.1400 (extension)

Why this zone

• Aggressive impulse down broke prior 4H structure (BOS confirmed)
• 4H FVG left unfilled at 1.1620–1.1640
• That same pocket is sitting in the 61.8-78.6 fib of the leg down = textbook OTE
• BSL above 1.1660 is the magnet for a stop hunt before the real move

Trigger I’m not blindly limiting in. Price needs to:

1. Tap into 1.1620–1.1638
2. Print a 15m bearish ChoCH inside the zone
3. Short on mitigation of the 5m/15m bearish OB that forms after the ChoCH

No ChoCH = no trade. I’d rather miss it.

Invalidation 4H close above 1.1660 and the whole bearish thesis is cooked. Move on.

Confluence score on the analyzer came back A (8/10) — OB, FVG, sweep, ChoCH, BOS all stacking on the same level. Missing the Wyckoff stuff (spring/accum/dist) which is fine for a continuation short.

Anyone else waiting on the retrace or are you already short from the breakdown?

Not financial advice. Plan your risk.