DZ’s $ATER ATER ultra-quick TA heading into 9/12: Key moving average reached in ATER’s daily chart

Greetings fellow $ATER ATERians,

As many know, I have been on a LONG trip, basically living out of a suitcase for the better part of 5 weeks… Wisconsin, Michigan, Wisconsin, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and soon back to Oklahoma, all for a series of work-related trips, conferences, and MUCH needed vacation. Things will be back to “normal” for me beginning 9/18. It’s honestly been a nice break, but I am ready to get back into my normal deep DDs and TA analysis.

I have a very quick TA for everyone, as I look at my favorite charts (daily candlesticks + RSI and stochastic RSI):

Figure 1: ATER 1D price, RSI (middle) and sRSI (bottom). Red (distribution) and blue (accumulation) indicated via the Wyckoff Sniper algorithm.

As we can see here, ATER has reached a very key turning point and should come as no surprise that the algorithms kept ATER right at the descending red distribution moving average (around $2.46). Will ATER ping-pong between here and the blue liquidity (accumulation) clouds above $2.20? That will be determined this week.

Historically speaking, ATER *usually* consolidates when it reaches any of the red distribution moving average lines following this algorithm, so I will not be shocked to see the algo-bots do everything in their power to keep the price under $2.46 on Monday. Important caveat however… this has been tested repeatedly for months, and it *will* break this line without consolidation at some point. I have no good guesses as to which way this will break (sRSI and RSI have room up, supporting further upward momentum, BUT ATER did gap up on Friday and needs to fill a gap down to about $2.34).

The market had a WILD 3 days Wednesday-Friday, where bond yields and stocks both surged up. Any market technician will tell you that this is NOT normal at all. Two indicators of bond (TLT) and high-yield junk bonds (HYG), a good proxy for stocks, show this contradiction:

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Figure 2: Daily charts of 20+ year treasury bond ETF (TLT, left) and high-yield growth corporate bond ETF (HYG, right).

A general rule of thumb is this: when TLT goes up, HYG usually does up (TLT going down implies bond selling = yields going up, which is unfavorable for HYG and stocks going up), and vice versa. HYG screamed higher at the end of last week while TLT ended the week red.

Something worth watching…

Finally… there is a major OPEX this week (9/16) and will be sure to give us at least one volatile trading day. ATER has less than 4,000 open-interest calls expiring this week, meaning a gamma squeeze is highly unlikely. Conversely, put-option OI is actually much lower, so any effect from put rolling or a negative gamma squeeze is equally unlikely.

Figure 3: Call option OI matrix for future expiration dates.

The January 2023 option chain looks spicy… but that’s a long ways away.

Take care everyone and good luck to everyone trading this week!

OBLIGATORY DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial adviser and this is not financial advise. Do your own due diligence before making financial decisions.