ANALYSIS EURUSD

MN BREAKDOWN

After the all-time high, EURUSD spent several years in a clear markdown, printing lower highs under the monthly downtrend line. Price finally reached the 0.955 area, where we start to see signs that selling pressure is fading: the last push down shows relatively lower volume and price stops making new lows with momentum.

From there, price breaks above the monthly downtrend line. The breakout is supported by enough volume to push through that “roof” of the trend. But the key detail is what happens next: when the market tries to push price back below the trendline, we see a large spike in volume, yet price is rejected and closes back above it. That suggests strong demand absorbing all the supply around that level.

In Wyckoff terms, this looks like stopping action and early accumulation at the lows, followed by absorption (LPS) on the retest of the trendline. As long as 0.955 holds as a structural low, this supports a medium- to long-term bullish bias on EURUSD.see this too, whe the price try to return below trend line we se a huge volume!

Monthly

D1 TF
On the daily chart we can see a large trading range (grey box) that worked as a potential accumulation zone. The last push to the bottom of that range came with a spike in volume, then price quickly rejected those lows – a classic Wyckoff-style spring.

After that, EURUSD printed a strong sign of strength: a vertical rally that broke above the range and the old bearish trendline, with rising volume. Now price is in its first correction, trading around the 23.6% retracement of that impulse and still well above the top of the range.

As long as price holds above the 1.11–1.12 area (38.2% + former range high), this pullback can develop into a last point of support in Wyckoff terms, favouring a continuation of the new uptrend. A clean break back inside the range with increasing bearish volume would instead open the door for a deeper correction towards the 50–61.8% retracement or even the 1.01 region.

Daily

H1 TF

When can we enter?
Sell or buy?

For now I have two hypotheses:

1. Deeper pullback to 38.2% – top of the previous range. If price keeps rejecting the 23.6% area and stays below the short-term bearish trendline, I expect a deeper correction towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which also lines up with the roof of the old range. On H1 that would give a tactical short down to the 1.11–1.12 zone, and later a potential long if we see Wyckoff-style absorption (LPS) there.
2. Shallow pullback and continuation of the uptrend. If buyers manage to break and close above the H1/H4 trendline and then hold above the 23.6% retracement, this consolidation can work as a re-accumulation. In that case I will wait for a breakout and a clean retest of the broken trendline / 23.6% area to look for long entries, targeting the recent high and new extensions to the upside.