Hey fellow DeepValue Hunters,
I’m deep in on SES S.A. (SESG) at €5.75. This stock is an absurdly strong, asymmetric value play, driven by a strategic masterstroke you need to see.
The Thesis: US Government-Funded Turnaround
Massive Upside Lever: The FCC is planning to clear C-Band spectrum. The compensation for everything above 100 MHz goes 100% to SES (thanks to the Intelsat merger). A realistic payout could equal or exceed the entire current market cap (~€2.5 Billion).
The Result: This cash funds the cleanup! It instantly drops SES’s high leverage to its Investment Grade target and sets the stage for a Special Dividend potentially over €1.00 per share.
Risk Mitigation: The core business is a cash cow (50% margin). Downside is limited by FCF and the guaranteed base payment (~€700 Million)
Smart Money is Buying: My naive Wyckoff analysis confirms this. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) is showing a Higher High (HH), meaning institutions are quietly accumulating huge positions before the price breaks out. JPMorgan’s 10.00 target validates the base case.
Bottom line: We have a rare opportunity where a regulatory event (C-Band) acts as a near-guaranteed catalyst to clean the balance sheet and unlock massive value. SES is essentially being financed by the US government to consolidate its dominance in the satellite space.
Key Date: The first vital indicator on the full payout (180 MHz vs. 100 MHz) is expected after the FCC’s comment period closes on January 05, 2026.
What are your thoughts on this high-conviction C-Band trade?
submitted by /u/Jealous-Boat-6847 to r/ValueInvesting
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