The Setup

HTF 4H trend is bearish — clean series of LH/LL since the 1.1850 peak in mid-April. Recent BOS to the downside, now consolidating above the 1.1560 low. This consolidation is shaping up as a Wyckoff re-distribution — smart money likely accumulating shorts before the next leg down.

Not chasing here. Waiting for a liquidity hunt of the consolidation highs into a fresh 4H supply before pulling the trigger.

Key Levels

R:R from mid-zone (~1.1670):

• TP1: ~1.75R
• TP2: ~2.75R
• TP3: ~4.25R

Confluence Stack (A-Grade)

✅ HTF bearish trend (4H LH/LL) ✅ Recent BOS to the downside ✅ Fresh unmitigated 4H supply at 1.1660–1.1680 ✅ OTE fib retracement overlaps zone ✅ Buyside liquidity above 1.1650–1.1660 = magnet for the sweep ✅ Wyckoff re-distribution structure ✅ Premium → Discount rotation play

Entry Trigger

1. Wait for price to sweep the 1.1650–1.1660 BSL into the 1.1660–1.1680 zone
2. Look for 15m ChoCH to the downside inside the zone
3. Enter on:
   • Aggressive: limit at top of zone (~1.1680)
   • Confirmed: market on 15m ChoCH + BOS retest

Management

• Risk 0.5–1% based on SL distance (~30 pips)
• Partials: 40% TP1, 40% TP2, 20% runner to TP3
• SL → BE after TP1
• Trail behind LTF structure after TP2

Invalidation

Sustained 4H close above 1.1710 = bearish thesis dead. Wyckoff re-distribution flips to re-accumulation and we’d be looking at 1.1750+. No re-entries.

Why Not Shorting 1.1638 Right Now

• Mid-range entry = trash R:R
• LTF still ranging — no confirmation yet
• The sweep is the trade. Without it, you’re just guessing.

Either price pushes up into 1.1660–1.1680 and gives me the trigger, or I miss it.

Tools: Conflux AI 4H analysis. Not financial advice.