look i’m not here to fud. i’ve held since the last cycle low and i’m not
selling a sat. but i’m done pretending this sub doesn’t have the memory
of a goldfish.
six weeks ago every other top post was “100k is the new 20k, etf flows
changed market structure forever, never going below six figures again.”
now we’re at 76,859, sitting 24% off the ATH, daily mfi at 35.52,
ma7 broken to the downside, and the same usernames are reposting the
wyckoff accumulation diagram for the eighth time this cycle.
https://preview.redd.it/35x3iaz1nf3h1.png?width=2156&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f0025151c83085198bbc20fc36ec721007db84d
three things i can’t get past:
-
the “institutions fix volatility” camp. spot etfs hold over a million
coins. mstr keeps stacking weekly. and we still bleed 5k in a session
on what — a soft cpi and some risk-off headlines? if the institutional
bid was real, where is it right now?
-
the “this is just a healthy retest” copers. 84k was the retest. then
80k was the retest. now 72k is the next retest. at what point does it
stop being a retest and start being a bear leg? the goalposts have
wheels at this point.
-
the leverage degens posing as long-term holders. half this sub got
liquidated on 50x in march and now you’re “accumulating.” bro you’re
rebuilding. there’s a difference.
i’m not calling a top. i’m not calling a bottom. i’m calling out the
cope, because pretending we’re in a permabull regime while the chart
shows otherwise is exactly the mindset that gets people rekt at 60k.
genuine question — what’s the actual thesis for the people stacking
hard right here? “saylor said so” isn’t a thesis. “etf line go up”
isn’t a thesis. i want the real bull case, not the meme one.
NFA. i’m long and i’m probably wrong. but i’d rather be wrong with
a clear head than be right by accident.
