XAUUSD 4H — patient short into 4700–4780 supply, A-grade 8/10, eyes on 4500 → 4300 → 4120

Gold ripped down from 4,800s and is sitting at 4,566 right now. Not chasing it. Waiting for the inevitable pullback into the fresh 4H supply that just got left behind.

Context:

• 4H trend: bearish since the rejection off ~4,800
• Current price: $4,566.16
• 4H BOS already printed at ~4670 → structure is broken bearish
• Fresh 4H supply left behind at 4700–4780 (untouched, OTE-aligned)
• Bias: short the retracement, not the breakdown

The setup (A-grade, 8/10 confluence):

• Entry zone: 4700–4780 (fresh 4H supply / order block, sits in OTE)
• Stop loss: 4805
• TP1: 4500 (sell-side liquidity) — partial
• TP2: 4300 (runner)
• TP3: 4120–4250 (HTF demand)
• R:R: ~3R / ~5.7R / ~8R+

Confluence stack:

• 4H BOS down ✅
• Fresh 4H Order Block untested ✅
• OTE retracement aligns with the OB ✅
• Liquidity sitting above recent minor highs (sweep on the way up into entry) ✅
• HTF demand stack at 4120–4250 = magnet
• Missing a clean Wyckoff distribution/spring → why 8/10 not 9+

Entry confirmation (sniper): Sweep of minor highs into 4700–4780, bearish ChoCH on 1H inside the zone, then 1H rejection candle off the OB. Confirmation or skip.

Invalidations:

• 4H close above 4805 → scrap it
• Price dumps straight through 4500 without pullback → missed it, don’t chase
• Bullish ChoCH back above 4670 with momentum before tagging the zone → walk away

Why I’m not shorting here at 4566: Mid-air short with stops 240+ points away is a coin flip. Either the pullback fills my zone or I miss it — both fine. Shorting the bottom of a leg with no structural stop is not.

Risking ~1% account. Partial at TP1, trail SL to BE, runner for TP2/TP3. If 4300 holds hard with bullish reaction, close runner and move on.

Anyone else stalking 4700–4780, or bidding the 4500 sweep for a long scalp first?

Not financial advice, just sharing the plan.