SPY update — price doing exactly what we expected, here’s what’s next

https://preview.redd.it/zb7szyc357rg1.png?width=1747&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b1c31c3537e033906e32ef92a239053142aca69

Quick update on SPY for anyone following along.

Posted about this a couple days ago when we spotted the bullish shift on the 15m. The thesis was simple — that selloff from the 18th to the 22nd looked like textbook accumulation, and when that big impulse candle ripped through on the 23rd, it confirmed the change of character. We flagged the 651-655 area as the demand zone to watch for a pullback entry.

So far, price is respecting the structure almost perfectly. We got the rally up to around 660-661, pulled back, and now we’re consolidating right above that demand zone. Hasn’t tapped into it cleanly yet but it’s hovering close. The fact that we’re holding above 655 without any aggressive selling is a good sign — sellers aren’t stepping in with conviction.

What I’m watching now:

• If we dip into 651-655 and get a strong reaction (engulfing candle, clean wick rejection), that’s the entry. Still the highest probability long zone on this chart.
• If we skip the pullback and just grind higher from here, I’m not chasing. I’d rather wait for a retest of the breakout level around 655-657 before getting involved.
• First target is still that 666-667 area. Supply above that at 670-671.

What would change my mind:

• A close below 647 on the 15m kills the whole thesis. That means the accumulation failed and we’re probably heading lower.
• If we get stuck chopping between 655-662 for another full session with declining volume, that’s not great either — could mean the move is exhausted.

Honestly the structure still looks clean. The ChoCH held, demand is intact, and we haven’t seen anything that invalidates the bullish case yet. Just need patience for the entry or confirmation that the next leg is starting.

Will update if anything changes. What are you guys seeing on SPY this week?

Not financial advice, just sharing what I’m tracking. Manage your risk.