XAUUSD Short — Riding the Supply Rejection Off the 15m Distribution (March 17)

https://preview.redd.it/w3xoj2h64mpg1.png?width=1735&format=png&auto=webp&s=87f2c0542497aa00ae0a5611d6193f694edb97dc

Gold’s been wild today. Caught a clean short off the fresh supply zone around $5,040–$5,027 after watching a textbook Wyckoff distribution play out on the 15m.

What I saw:

• Price swept into a fresh supply zone and immediately showed weakness
• Bearish ChoCH confirmed around $5,019 — that was my green light
• The whole move lined up with an FVG fill + OTE retracement, so confluence was stacked

My levels:

• 🟢 Entry: $5,040–$5,027 (fresh supply flip)
• 🔴 Stop Loss: Above $5,045
• 🎯 TP1: ~$5,005 (sell-side liquidity, ~2.5R)
• 💰 TP2: $4,990 (major low liquidity, ~4R)

Why I liked this setup: The bearish ChoCH + fresh supply + OTE alignment is one of those combos where you just have to take the trade. Price was distributing clearly — equal highs getting swept, weak breakout attempts, then the shift. Classic institutional playbook.

Risk note: Main risk was the ChoCH being a false signal / liquidity grab with price pushing back above $5,045. That’s why the SL is tight above the zone — if it reclaims, the thesis is dead and I’m out.

Currently letting TP1 do its thing. If we get there clean I’ll trail the rest toward $4,990.

Not financial advice — just sharing my read on the chart. Always manage your risk.