It hurts at the moment.. but im buying more 🤣 DCA, DCA, DCA.. the only free lunch.. I wouldn’t mind below 1$ tbh.. my portfolio will suck for a while but in that case I rather lose it all instead of panic selling. I’ve made those bad calls in the past. Not doing that. I’m going under with the ship if I need too.
But weren’t we already knowing dilution was coming .. ?
Better now than later.. (I wished they could get 90mil for a 3$ price so they would have an extra quarter)
But now they got a “safer” financial position and should improve the process till next approval (if this comes) if I’m correct they had cash and reserves till Q2-3 2026 depending on the cost reductions and sales.
60mil makes 2quarters. so end 2026 / Q1 2027
2026 should be the year AV access (dialysis) should be approved and 2027 commercial and more news coming out for other pipelines during.. if AV access gets approved this should be fine.. some trauma sales making up for a quarter or 2 would be nice though
Fresenius biggest partner, still helping on data and on top of things. Management of fresenius just needs to see the strategy they can play.. buy at least 2 for each centre they have in the USA.. HUMAcyte cash burn gone.. stock shoots up.. and this asset on the balance sheet of fresenius goes up from 20 million too… Who knows what.. if they are cash burn free and even make profit.. this stock is 25+ .. people here deserve that after all their patience.. but fresenius too.
Even if they scale up and price goes down to 7.5k a pop. Just changes the number of fresenius needs to buy 4-5 a year per centre.. if the BIM is positive for dialysis.. i cant see any reason not to play this in Fresenius’s mind..
If the product is solid it’s just a management decision…
My reason I think this will happen; (fundamentals) 1. Fresenius is still a partner and giving data.. so not abandoning the project.. (collaboration still active) if they wanted they could sell their shares.. holding period is over.. and they don’t show an exit strategy. And they have someone looking at their assets. And he is not budging
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Fresenius has royalties and exclusive rights in EX-us. They want this to work. And till now studies show it’s still legit.. only mister “Hooman” stirs things up. (Dont know if his motivation is grounded, but FDA makes the final call, I can complain too, about things.. doesn’t mean things happen)
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Fresenius had the royalties of 10-20% so in other words they get it for a discount and front run their competitors that should pay a lot more
(after some milestones they got 5-10% still a big difference compared to competition)
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If fresenius does buy what I’m stating above. Huma shares will go at least 500% gain. Because Humacyte show resilience and non dilutive stats after that. In other words, the balance sheet of fresenius will shoot up. Because assets are also on there.. makes it more healthy for them.. and they get more happy investors
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In the long term there should be less complications for the patient, less cost on the system and it has properties like adapting to the body with no rejections. Others can’t compete.
(Im a ex-gym owner and currently still give training for fun but have met 2 people with amputated legs because they got rejected by their own vein (diabetic 2). The leg was literally turning black. He told me his lifestyle and he has been hard coping because it was a high level Dutch kickboxer in his youth) What I try to say. I see the value of these properties. They had a past with infections and nothing he currently could do about it. (They did smoke and eat unhealthy)
- If BIM shows potential just like in trauma.. less complications.. less harvesting.. less cost in long term.. why would a company that would get a discount and have stake in the company not buy the product.. it’s just sounds silly at that point.. the more they buy the more HUMAcyte can scale.. the cheaper it’s products get. The more it’s competing against PTFE and vein (who wants an extra operation, I wouldn’t if I had the choice)
It’s not unusual in business that (bio)tech/medical products in infancy are expensive and could get 60-80% cost reduction after scaling. 25k with a 15-20k reduction will definitely give PTFE and vein a run for its money..
Simple example.. look LED lighting.. first 2000-2010 it was expensive everybody complaining it wouldn’t improve and was expensive. Same with GB ram.
I know this because I was growing 99 weed plants back in 2009 in the attic and I wanted few LED systems but they were expensive and not that good in terms of LUX/output. So it was supportive for growth but not strong enough. Look these days, most get run by LED. Even LED growing farms are starting to pop up because it’s cheaper and more efficient
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The product is “new” on the market so still maybe not perfect, who knows what could happen to improving the product or different supplementary resolutions (like for thrombotic events)
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They have a BIG pipeline with much IP.. so fresenius is also 13-15% owner of these products via shares.. if symvess works in multiple indications.. the “futuristic” pipelines after will be next.. IP still has value in this world
SOOOOOOO in short.. don’t get emotional… After a 30% pump and giving everything back directly..
Why I do think this will happen: (in technical term) 1. One of the things that just happens in stocks… When there is a cycle bottom.. price could go x3 and get a technical correction.. Huma’s lowest point was around 80 cents. And which mark did we pass? 2,40.. 3 times multiple..
They say the Best things go in 3’s. Apparently also in multiples.. so maybe rebound after a 50% correction .. 1,40-ish and then do again a x3.. 5,20-ish
This even worked before trauma indication. 3 to 9 and big dump.. 3 times your money is just stupid not to trim.. and get those 300% somewhere else that’s safer.. and compound that..
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Just look into accumulation and distribution fases.. like for example wyckoff method.. I really think we testing the spring fase.. volume is almost as high as approval while price is 3times lower.. (see again a 3😜) i guess some people just smart with math and fucking us all emotionally💩
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It’s still in a falling wedge.. can look at this on multiple time charts.. Brady was just smart selling.. bet he wished he could sell more.. it made a double bottom.. he sold almost the top.. Pritcher did exactly this time.. she got 100% out.. so that was the blow of top.. 80% correction usually is a very good spot to buy.. so I will do this and keep emotions out.. insiders won’t buy because they already get compensation each and every start of the year in February..
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Even when it dumped.. they needed almost 30million to do this.. while normally there is a volume around 2-5mil, 6-10mil on a good day and 10-15mil around approval.. but keep in mind price was also 3 times higher (again a 3, how is this possible, even volume times 3. 😲)
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Look into next 3 things 🤣: ict-power trading.. wyckoff.. an patterns.. I knew these things but still not selling and just accumulating. I do feel safe to be honest..
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My price targets are 4,30 before approval , 8,60 in 2029 , 14+, 2030 and beyond
Do you literally see them go bankrupt with this kind of innovation.. wake up.. life will improve it won’t go backwards.. even if it feels like it for many.. people want to have a better world.. and this is still a big step forward in healthcare.. especially with pipelines afterwards.. I do think Laura does the right calls.. what you expect.. a pre revenue company in healthcare beating its own shareholders like fresenius?? It’s marketcap is 13-billion. While being a profitable company..
Look also in this way.. if symvess gets at least 50% cheaper.. what do you think will happen to military implications around the world.. PTFE wouldn’t be used due to risks of battlefield scenario.. and who set the prices.. can’t they just not literally make this 50% when some approval comes in.. they don’t need to sponsor the product for testing..
Also just buy dilutive prices.. normally it shoots up afterwards..worst already happen while capitulation happening.. just set price orders.. and put a lot on really low what you thing cant happen.. many times it will ☠️
This was my rant for now 🙂 good job if you made this so far
submitted by /u/Jermainvdriet to r/HUMACYTE
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