The Time Frame Is Everything

Higher Timeframes (Daily, Weekly, Monthly)
Lower Timeframes (Intraday Framework)

Influential commentators often propagate misconceptions that cost the community money. One of the most harmful and widely accepted myths is: “Since the market is fractal, all timeframes are the same. Choosing a timeframe is merely a matter of preference.” Today, I aim to debunk this myth using not only my own research but also basic logic.

Mass Psychology
Higher timeframes better reflect investor psychology and provide a more reliable historical record of the emotions and interests driving markets over time.

Manipulation
Higher timeframes require greater capital to manipulate, as the price action stems from interests that have matured over longer periods (increasing reliability). Typically, higher timeframes are dominated by well-capitalized participants with long-term objectives.

News
Movements in higher timeframes are less influenced by short-term news, offering a more stable and often more predictive market perspective.

Randomness
Randomness increases in lower timeframes. For example, trading systems’ accuracy rates decline as timeframes shrink. Strategies proven profitable (and documented) on daily charts may fail completely on 4-hour or 1-hour timeframes.

Additional Points

• Well-documented profitable trading systems, such as those by technical analysts like Larry Connor or Thomas Bulkowski, focus on daily or higher timeframes. Effective systems for 5- or 15-minute charts are nearly impossible to document.
• All classic indicators (MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels, Donchian Channels, Williams’ Alligator, Ichimoku Cloud, Parabolic SAR, DMI, etc.) were developed based on daily or higher timeframes.
• All classical methodologies (Dow Theory, Chartism, Elliott Wave Theory, Harmonic Patterns, Wyckoff Method, Gann Theory, Hurst Cycles, Japanese Candlestick Patterns, etc.) were designed for daily or higher timeframes.
• Every renowned technical analyst has applied daily or higher timeframes to build wealth.

On Key Authors

• Richard W. Schabacker (the true father of Technical Analysis), in his book Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits (1932), categorized market fluctuations into Major Movements (monthly or higher), Intermediate Movements (weekly), and Minor Movements (daily). His methodology — now called “chartism” (though widely misunderstood and misapplied) — emphasized analyzing these timeframes. He warned: “The longer a chart takes to form a pattern, the greater its predictive significance and the longer the subsequent price movement. The size, duration, and strength of the pattern determine its impact.” He also addressed manipulation, noting the high cost of consistently manipulating weekly timeframes.
• Dirk du Toit in Bird Watching in Lion Country states: “The smaller your timeframe, the greater the randomness of what you observe. Watching 5- or 15-minute price changes involves high randomness, making it unlikely to correctly anticipate the next move. A coin, like a 5-minute chart, has no memory. Just because it lands heads eight times in a row doesn’t mean it ‘adjusts’ to balance probabilities. Predicting the next 5-minute candle is like flipping a coin.”
• In the documentary Trader (1987), despite Wall Street’s aggressive style, Paul Tudor Jones analyzed daily or higher timeframes, comparing historical charts to events like the 1929 Crash. He even used classical methods like Elliott Wave Theory to identify long-term opportunities.

Final Conclusion: Respect Temporal Hierarchy
Trading lower timeframes isn’t a “style choice” but an exponential risk. Randomness, manipulation, and unreliable tools make intraday trading a minefield where even seemingly profitable systems succumb to statistical decay. Higher timeframes, where psychology, history, and volume define clear trends, are paramount.

As Schabacker warned: “The strength of a pattern depends on the time it consolidates.” Ignoring this logic risks capital. In a noise-dominated world, patience and macro focus remain the only time-tested strategies.