BlackBerry (BB) in Wyckoff accumulation before breakout – Here is my thorough analysis.

For some context, I work in the Software Defined Vehicle domain and as we all know from the news that BB’s QNX has been making in-roads into all modern SDV based vehicles due to their ability to operate mixed criticality SW on a single HPC. Everyone in the automotive world is trying to move from 100+ ECUs to one powerful HPC running one or several SoCs.

So naturally I got interested in BB and realized (what appears to me) that Hedge funds have been accumulating (based on Q3, Q4 13F filings) all the while keeping price down through algorithmic buying up until their most important VWAP then flash crashing to being down the price below the VWAP to accumulate more.

What was the most important VWAP? The VWAP from when they announced debentures.

Do I have evidence of any of this? I am good at TA and I have drawn the accumulation box before mark up.

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This chart shows how the price action started getting compressed in a narrow zone with minimal breakouts during huge news drops of BB performing cost cutting to become profitable by CY25.

Zooming into the chop box reveals algo buying until price hits VWAP.

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Below is a picture of a typical Wyckoff accumulation.

Notice the Max Pain scenario that flushes out weak hands before the ramp up in price (mark-up)

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Those blue horizontal lines all have the same angle across. They were drawn once then copied over. It clearly (to me) shows algorithmic trading. The only time the algos stopped the price manipulation was when there was a massive news drop and the price rose to 3.20 where they reject it as soon as news fades.

My next piece of evidence is on the monthly chart below. It shows how price action got compressed around the 2.70 price mark (today’s price) for the last 3 months. However looking at the Money Flow Index it is showing a divergence. This tells me money is flowing into BB however algos are able to keep price in a tight range. How? I feel it is because algos make up most of the trading. Retail jumps in during news drops and maybe exits later and pretty much every other time the algos are able to manipulate it at will. But why not drive it even lower? I feel the 2.50 price mark is when shorts need to come up with more liquidity and that is keeping the price above 2.50.

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Price in a tight range in the last 3 months.

Finally what am I saying?

1. BB will turn profitable soon (by their own words and my estimation)
2. They have about $815m in royalties alone for their QNX (by their records) and this is even BEFORE we have a single car running with SDV on the roads except from Tesla, Rivian, Lucid etc.
3. Their Cyber division and IoT are being separated. Possibly for a sale or IPO of one.
4. There was a massive demand for their debentures in Jan/Feb. Overwhelming demand.
5. Their price is manipulated
6. Make sure shares you own in margin trading accounts cannot be used/borrowed for shorting by institutions. How? IDK.

In full disclosure ever since I started noticing this strange PA, I have been accumulating both BB shares and long dated options. So yes I have a skin in this game. I wanted to pass on this news so retail sees the PA and decides for themselves if BB is for them.

Thank you