As I want to wait for a bit longer to post this update, I believe now may be the perfect time. A decision is awaited by speculative markets: Will major indexes break their .702’s and .786’s? Has the DJI and other indexes already finished their re-accumulation phase and is ready to “break out”? Was gold’s rejection at the ATH really “just a tripple-top, we’re still going up”? (Congrats to gold future traders with actually breaking the ATH). Lastly, what does all of this mean for Bitcoin and alts? Fasten your seatbelts and take a chill pill, cause this post is gonna enrage a lot of people.
The big question first: Yes, Bitcoin will break up from the 30K level it’s been dancing at. The same indicators showing a breakup from sub 20K level back in January are showing a continued breakup from current levels. Ref my Q1 retrace post. We are fighting the preliminary support level pre-bear breakdown of 2022. Additionally, DXY is breaking down. The thing is, overlaying fractals shows the crypto and stock marked didn’t take off until DXY collapse was finished. (Jan 21-May 21). Lastly, inverting the BTC price graph overlaying it on top of our ATH area shows that the inverse of the 40K neckline breakdown is imminent (meaning, 30K breakup is imminent). Not the 2nd one after retesting the breakdown, but the very first one around Jan 2022.
just to point out why this is so big: Because up until this point, the bottom has mirrored the inverse top. It is truly beautiful Wyckoff accumulation/distribution on a large time frame. When the neck break up happens, the retrace may finish, and the following retest of the neckline may become the re-accumulation bottom, usually towards the BTC halving. BTC domination will be a useful indicator at that time – Seeing alts fly high is what we’re looking for, for retrace into re-accumulation to happen. The opposite may indicate Bitcoin will retest its ATH before the halving, which I don’t expect, yet I don’t disregard because I am not sold on the halving magic as so many others seems to be.
The 2nd biggest question: How high we? (Yes, I am totally disregarding “wen moon?”). I still believe that Bitcoin should retrace to the area of 70.2% of it’s last ATH. Yet, I am using the .702 ($50K) as a middle-point between the .618 ($46K) and the .786 ($54K) retracement levels. It is always hard to say, so I will begin deleveraging at the first and be spot at the last. I believe the top of Bitcoin came in March 21, though price were higher, all indicators were “lower” and showing heavy bearish divergences. So, this is where I draw my fib from. Either way, the difference isn’t huge if you draw it from the price top, and having some wiggle room isn’t a bad idea. I can live with missing price targets by a 10% percent if I’m wrong, at those high prices. All of the above price targets are pure speculation into the fact that the patterns of human emotion showing up in crypto is getting more and more similar to the stock market. Looking forward to dive deeper into limit-sell targets as the neckline breaks up.
Then what? I believe the major stock indexes will tell us that when the time comes. Seeing DJI (Naxdaq, S&P, etc) break all-time highs during the next year would be frightening to me, I will most likely sell most assets if it happens and start biting my nails. I have gone somewhat into detail of why before, but most of it is tied to dept and to the 4.236 extensions getting reached for so many assets and indexes with the fib extension drawn at the 2008 crash. I want to point out that some indexes already reached this, and it was at that pivotal moment the fed decided they will no longer “allow themselves” to own stock, thus selling the top. Too much dept, too much fomo is always scary. It would just scream bobble burst to me.
Gold price will also help us tell the story when we reach this point.
Market sentiment will maybe be the most interesting to watch.
So what is really next, after the retrace finishes? I am looking to get into better details on that, hopefully during Q3 of 2023. But, I am just a man, a finance nerd, and my crystal ball is not magic, just patterns, patterns created by human emotion over and over and over… At this time, I feel like I need to see more (new, coming) patterns to emerge before I want to tell that future for sure. Only thing I am sure about is to keep long on crypto for now, await the neckline to be broken and see the retrace top go into re-accumulation.
submitted by /u/TheFirstBull to r/Cryptomist
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