[SERIOUS] From a time perspective, this winter is where we should find the bottom of the bear; but even while writing this it feels more like copium and a fool’s hope

Bear with me a little bit here (pun intended). I know crypto is in a world of pain and am very aware that at the moment noone is even daring to dream of a bear market bottom (thanks Sam!). But I have some data that I thought would be interesting to present here. This data can be used as a tentative argument for that the bottom should come this winter.

I have absolutely no idea whether this will come to fruition. Several bottom indicators already failed given the new low. Nevertheless, I look forward to your thoughts.

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1) “Time in the market”: Months from cycle high to bear market low

The past two cycles, it took 14 or 12 months to get from the cycle high until the bear market low. We are currently 12 months away from the all time high in 2021.

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• 2013 high – 2015 bear low: 14 months
• 2017 high – 2018 bear low: 12 months
• 2021 high – now: 12 months

These three periods are highlighted in the chart below.

https://preview.redd.it/mry86hgzvbz91.png?width=1285&format=png&auto=webp&s=8363a2c69b418f2d964a88168e6e451dd3a53da6

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2) “Time in the market”: Time from bear market low UNTIL next halving

The past two cycles, the cycle bear market low until the halving lasted 18 or 17 months. Currently, we are 16 months away from the estimated next halving. So we already passed it by a little.

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• 2015 bear low to 2016 halving: 18 months
• 2018 bear low to 2020 halving: 17 months
• current low to estimated tine of 2024 halving: 16 months

These three periods are highlighted in the chart below.

https://preview.redd.it/khjz1oljxbz91.png?width=1283&format=png&auto=webp&s=db31c6a862966bbc4ff354bbc92cf0288b807e90

So, from purely a time perspective, if history were to repeat, we should bottom soon. Note that based on percentage drawdown from the cycle high until the bear low in the past, we should fall more from here:

• 2013 high – 2015 bear low: -87%
• 2017 high – 2018 bear low: -84%
• 2021 high – current low: -77%

And unfortunately, the leading people in this space and doing everything to their ability to ensure that we drop more. Obligatory fuck Sam Bankman-Fried here. Based on prior bears we should bit $10k.

Is there some confluence for this happening? Well, yes, but you are not going to like it. First, our friendly Wyckoff chart is back (lol)

https://preview.redd.it/7yzihdf20cz91.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=39ad230aab6cce2cc07ce8851911f25a546305f8

But for this to have any chance the bounce yesterday should be the spring or we should see it in the near future. Difficult to imagine now.

Ironically enough, if we look at the Wall Street Cheat Seet and assume that June-October was the anger phase, setting a new low during the depression phase makes sense. Then we should bounce now and crab for a while, similar to the period before this drop.

https://preview.redd.it/wnyhifvmybz91.png?width=1030&format=png&auto=webp&s=98286ea6b9a6f6750b7f1ca3feca6629656c9ba3

Again, just data and the sample size is small. Still, worth noting in my view. Hopefully this is the darkest period before the dawn.

What do you think?