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Respected Traders and Investors, I hope you are having a fantastic day. I wasn’t gonna post anything on Sunday but then i realized i have been slacking a lot recently. So today I am gonna bore y’all guys again with another one of my newsletter. It’s highly recommended you read this letter while you’re sober. Now wherever you read it, that’s not my place to say. You can read it in a stripclub or the toilet seat in a bar. I don’t mind at all but what I do mind is you read it, throw it away, forget about it and then later rekt yourself in a trade and then cry about how the market is manipulated and start blaming the people who fed you the narrative be it on Main-Street or Wall Street media. Remember it’s always advisable to “Do your own research” “This is not financial advice”. So if you rekt yourself it’s your fault not anyone else. So today we are gonna talk about and not only just talk we are gonna visualize the past Santa Claus rally coinciding with the midterms election rally and draw meaningful conclusions from it. This post shall be based on manual interpretation and then finally we are gonna use the analysis what we have drawn to check whether it fits our theory called “The Great Financial Crisis in 99 days” For those who don’t know we released our most anticipated newsletter in a very long while. But unfortunately due to some technical issues with the Turing bot the post cannot be seen on Wsb. So you are advisable to go check my pinned tweet or you can hop on discord to get the letter. It’s completely free of charge but you have to work for it. I’m not gonna share the link here because some of you may find it inappropriate. Without any further delay let us begin and dive into the visual analysis. An analysis you might have rarely seen on Wall Street. Mid term x Santa Claus Analysis Hypothesis : – Since we are in a bear market then all the analysis should be taking into account a bear market. – We have taken into account that post midterms we are gonna crash till March 2023 so we are gonna look for till December end and the next yr end cases. I know it sounds confusing but you will see later on what I mean. Procedure : We will be using the Dow Jones Industrial average since 1896 coz we are the only guys who do every analysis based on the past 120 yr. The vertical will be either in red ( Republicans Presidents ) , blue ( Democratic Presidents ) and gray ( Mid terms elections ). The gray line will have two variables i.e. H suggesting “House” and S suggesting “Senate”. + ve , -ve , = will be seats added, subtracted , or remained the same after election conclusion. Note : I forgot to remove = later on. So it will be either = +ve or = -ve or = =. We also have a 4 points table of Santa, Evil Santa giving info about period b/w mid terms and yr end. And then there is Dragon King and Bull Market giving us info about period after mid terms till next yr end. Experiment :
Since we know we are not in a bull market so it makes sense to take bear market analysis. As you can see this contradicts our theory and says it’s after Feb first week you start crashing that means Santa Claus rally is coming but you can also see the power was under Republicans and not Democrats. Result : Okay fine. Santa 1 , Evil Santa 0 , Dragon King : 1, Bull mkt : 0 2 ) 1904 – 1912 : Look at these times. I wonder what was going on here that markets decided to for a lost decade. As you can see markets peaked in 1906 and then it was only until 1916 we went for a bull market. But we don’t care about the lost decade right now. All we care about is Santa. So as you can see our first condition i.e. be in a bear market is fulfilled. So we can do an analysis on this and observe with your own eyes that markets fell either -42% in next yr or just stagnated and went -14% by next yr. No Santa Claus rally here. Result : Santa 2, Evil Santa 1, Dragon King 3, Bull mkt : 0 3) 1912 – 1920 “I hate you i don’t wanna be a bear. I wanna go long with Dems in town” This is the analysis you get after you studying this period. I mean look at that midterms. Even if Biden loses both houses or just one by a -ve seats then the stock market would absolutely rip apart every bear in town. This is the hopium my friend “Tom lee” is smoking. Plus you get the added benefits of being in ⅓ inflationary period of all time. But bears will be like “I wanna exclude the first case because of its bull market”. No we cannot, we were in a bear market but midterms got us out of the bear market. And in the other case, there is no Santa Claus rally but there is a 2023 rally we cannot ignore. Also this election was special because it was the first time since the civil war that Democrats had total control of both houses plus President Wilson became two time serving Democrat since Andrew Jackson in 1828 – 1836. Result : Santa 3, Evil Santa 2, Dragon King 3, Bull mkt : 2. And just like that bull mkt scored 2pts in an instant. 4) 1920 – 1932 Look guys, I respect both parties and I have to be neutral. So Republican Presidents were you all asleep during 1920-30. Some of the news guys over here on Wsb who do not know their history would be like hey i wanna see how high that chart went up. Respectfully to those people quit trading and investing. So enough bad jokes. Let’s do this analysis. We are gonna exclude this bull market. You all know why by now. As for bear markets it is what it is even though i don’t want to give a single points to Santa rally but i have to give at-least one. As for dragon king in 2023 it clearly deserves 2 pts. Result : Santa 4, Evil Santa 3, Dragon King 5, Bull mkt : 2. And just like that bull mkt scored 2pts in an instant. 5) 1932 – 1944 The most loved Democratic President having total control of both houses did not have it easy where clowns at the Federal Reserve were running a freak show over 15 yrs of span. But i guess who can blame them when they had to face world war 2. Btw those who don’t know Ben Bernanke won the Nobel prize for understanding the great depression by making crayon drawings like me. Now since I made bears angry in my President Wilson analysis its time to make some bulls angry by calling the first midterms in the bull market. “No you cannot do that. That’s wrong we were in a bear market of depression” You see for me 1936 is the top that will be broken yrs later in the 1940’s decade. If i start taking the Great depression as peak my god we wouldn’t break even till 1954. So it does not make sense. That leaves us with two markets for midterms. The first one kinda fits our previous newsletter analysis where we do three touches and boom. So evil santa and dragon will receive the points here. As for the other depressing market it’s pretty obvious. Also key thing to note is half of inflationary ⅔ 1940-50 decade midterms was the driving force with Democratic president. I feel sad for Republicans being the most hated but they had it coming by sleeping on the wheels. Result : Santa 5, Evil Santa 4, Dragon King 6, Bull mkt : 3. Hmm interesting everyone got a step up. 6) 1944 – 1960 This if you remember from last analysis is the second half of ⅔ inflationary period i.e. 1940-1950 high inflation. And then I have also added further mid terms. But to be honest I am just gonna disregard them completely. I mean look at those raging bull markets in mid terms. I am seriously not gonna take the Post World War 2 boom market of 266% of 86 months into consideration engulfing two midterms and the last midterms coninciding b/w the Cold war bull market. Just not happening here. So that leaves us with this complicated puzzle of 1946-1948. We talked about this extensively in the last newsletter. Just look at the Democratic President stuck in a midterms where he will have -ve seats in both house and senate for sure. So I think even though this analysis is suggesting a Wyckoff accumulation beginning from the post midterms till the entire year 2023 with moves like up +14% then down -12% I believe first a -20% capitulation will come ( highlighted in yellow ) since three touches are complete. Seriously if you do your other macro analysis with your ML and AI algorithms you will always find yourself getting caught in this inflationary decade with high debt/gdp ratio. But since i have to adhere to the principles i constructed hence santa and bull market takes the point. Also no lower lows were formed. Result : Santa 6, Evil Santa 4, Dragon King 6, Bull mkt : 4. 7) 1960 – 1980 This is the most interesting mid term analysis I have come across. You can also call this 3/3 inflationary high decade. Anybody out there who calls the current market stagflation should do statistical analysis on this and other charts. It’s a slap on the face of everyone who compares 2022 with 1970’s stagflation. In every post midterms rally the market has already bottomed and it continues to go higher by the following year end. Santa Claus rally came in every single post midterms. I also did the average analysis for you guys coz i love you all so much. The answer is +21.66% by December end. And if you do oil and gold analysis the results are gonna be shocking. Btw for bears who are complaining no you cannot take that one or that one. Sorry guys i have to coz we were falling more than 25% in every two yrs creating multiple bear markets. As for why I took the first one. Did you forget about kick starting the bull markets part? Result : Santa 11, Evil Santa 4, Dragon King 6, Bull mkt : 9. A freaking 5pt leap by the bull and Santa. Bears bend over now. Tbh guys now you are starting to see why the markets are holding too strong. I think they believe more in the post mid terms rally aka santa claus rally than they believe in Fed pivot. This is what must have caused such bullish returns on post mid terms statistical analysis which is being fed to us in the wall street media. 8 ) 1980 – 1996 Why was I with bears again? Lol. I mean look at those monstrous next year returns. I mean this is what you really call a booming economy. Joe beans i didn’t mean to offend you if you’re reading this. A monstrous 4pt leap again. Hmm i dont think so. Two of those are in the bull market. The 1990 ( kick started the bull mkt ) and 1994 are the only ones in -20% bear market. Now you’re starting to understand guys why the data is statistically favouring the bulls over bears. But I gotta roll with the analysis. Can’t make unnecessary changes. Sorry bears bend over again to bulls in front of these crazy returns. Average return : +25.62% as opposed to +34.45% taking into account Aug 1987 (Those two overlapped returns ) Result : Santa 13, Evil Santa 4, Dragon King 6, Bull mkt : 11. Now you guys should understand how hard it is to actually be short in the market. Your thesis should be inch precise otherwise you will be caught up in bear hopium and totally forget about riding the bull market. 9) 1996 – 2012 Finally some slow down. Not your monstrous crazy return now from post midterms to next yr end. So you can clearly see two midterms are in the bull market. Remember this is Dow Jones so maybe for Nasdaq this wont hold true coz Nasdaq peaked in 2000 so it was at bear market in 2008 as well. But yk that in Great depression i cancelled out the high bubble part similarly i might have given a pass to dotcom peak as well. Since we know that we cannot take the bull market part so hence we will take bear market and in that one midterms had santa but other one did not. But still bulls get pts as mkt averaged +ve return yet again for next yr end. No points to dragon king in a long time. Result : Santa 14, Evil Santa 5, Dragon King 6, Bull mkt : 13. 10) 2012 – 2022 part Channeling my inner bear : Market should fall by -89% in all indices. Seriously, I had enough. We had globalization because of Reganomics. Hence the market should go to Regan levels. I am just kidding guys. I thought I might find something useful by doing this analysis but instead I found hopium here. It’s hard to be a bear and if anyone on the Internet professes “it’s so easy to be bearish” “ohh the market will fall -20% for sure” Tell these guys to show them their calculation otherwise everything is priced in. And if these guys cannot show their calculation they really don’t know anything about markets and hence i call them “Born out of dotcom bubble investors” Oh i totally forgot gotta do these stupid analysis. So as you can see we have never been in a bear market coz we didnt went -20% in Dow Jones. We broke 2008 all time high just after my favorite president of the US got reelected. This 2022 perhaps will be in a long time where we fell more than -20% in Dow indices. Result : Santa 14, Evil Santa 5, Dragon King 6, Bull mkt : 13. No points added. Conclusion : As you can see Santa Claus rally is coming and we will have bull market returns by next yr end from current levels i.e. markets will be higher than $3700 SPX by December 31, 2023. Tbh i don’t believe in this but this was the analysis. Final Result : Just long guys. F these bears. They don’t know anything. Powell will pivot in December fomc 2022 -> market will rip higher with 50bps till when powell keeps rate flat or starts cutting. Disinflation trade will come soon. Cpi makes LL stock mkt will make HH & HL. Tbh i dont believe in this but this was the analysis result. I am not joining the Tom Lee camp period. You guys can join him. And if youre thinking of joining me, well think again about this analysis coz me and “Michael Burry “ will march to hell and has a probability of (6/19)* 100% of winning. I think I have forgotten how to calculate probability. Btw i totally forgot to solve Q. Where are we in regards to this Mid terms X Santa X 2023? Ans. Well for that. Lets take our first initial condition i.e. a bear market. Second condition would be a Democrats and third condition will be high inflation. These all high inflationary bear markets say we have bottomed and the only move is to the upside till end of yr 2023. Final Thoughts Some of you might question if this guy is even human. Who does this kind of analysis rather just write some Python + ML code and then just extrapolate the data. You see guys first of all yes i am human but the thing is I haven’t talked to people like in ages. I just sit in my room and either talk to you or I am just watching an anime, tv show, movie, sports from all across the globe. In short you can say I don’t have a life. My souls are scattered over the Internet and soon it will be on Metaverse. Hence i am bullish on Meta i guess. I am also an old fashioned investor like Gann and Wyckoff who loves crayon drawings over the stock market. I can write code since I was a developer but I like manual and visual calculations over coding. That goes for my technical analysis as well. Enjoy your weekend guys. I hope you guys live your lives to the fullest. Stay safe! Eat healthy and just keep having discussions with your friends and family. That’s all I have to say right now. With lots of love Thank you Regards Desmond submitted by /u/DesmondMilesDant to r/wallstreetbets |